Match Preview
Millwall vs Derby County takes place on 31 October 2026 at 15:00, according to the supplied Round 13 fixture screenshot. This Championship meeting pairs two clubs with contrasting points returns after 11 league matches. Home advantage can be important, but the more reliable starting point is how each attack compares with the opposing defence.
Millwall have 15 points from 11 games, scoring 18 goals and conceding 18. Their scoring rate of 1.64 per game suggests consistent attacking potential. At home, the priority should be establishing territory without allowing cheap counter-attacks.
Derby County have 6 points from 11 games, with 9 goals for and 20 against. That equates to 0.82 scored and 1.82 conceded per fixture. The visitors need to manage the ball carefully when building attacks and remain compact after losing possession.
The first goal may change the shape of this contest. If Millwall score first, they can defend narrower and counter into open space. If Derby County take the lead, the home side will have to commit more players forward. Second balls, rest defence and set-piece deliveries are potential turning points.
Using the teams’ league-wide goals records, a simple model estimates 1.92 expected home goals and 1.10 expected away goals. These are model estimates, not verified bookmaker figures or guaranteed outcomes. Confirmed injuries, lineups and head-to-head results were not available consistently for all fixtures, so none have been invented.
TV Broadcast and Livestreams
Broadcast availability depends on your country. A verified TV channel or streaming service for this individual fixture was not established; consult the EFL and licensed broadcasters before kick-off.
Match Information
| Date | 31 October 2026 |
|---|---|
| Kick-off Time | 15:00 (screenshot time; timezone unverified) |
| Venue | Millwall home ground (stadium not verified) |
| Competition | EFL Championship 2026/27 – Round 13 |
Odds (1X2)
| 1 Millwall | 56.4% model probability |
|---|---|
| X Draw | 22.1% model probability |
| 2 Derby County | 21.4% model probability |
These are calculated model probabilities, NOT live bookmaker odds. No unverified betting prices are presented. The model uses season goals for and against plus a small home advantage.
Form and Head-to-Head
| Millwall | 15 points, 18 scored, 18 conceded in 11 games |
|---|---|
| Derby County | 6 points, 9 scored, 20 conceded in 11 games |
This is season-to-date performance, not a fabricated last-five sequence. A reliable fixture-specific head-to-head record was not independently established.
Standings (Championship 2026/27)
| Millwall | 15 pts / 11 played / GF 18 / GA 18 |
|---|---|
| Derby County | 6 pts / 11 played / GF 9 / GA 20 |
Reference: EFL league snapshot, 18 October 2026. This is a fixed baseline; league positions may change before later rounds.
Prediction
Final Score Prediction: Millwall 1-1 Derby County
Primary prediction: Home win. Model probabilities: home 56.4%, draw 22.1%, away 21.4%. The most likely single scoreline is 1-1, but exact-score predictions are inherently uncertain.
Goals prediction: Over 2.5 goals. The estimated probability of Over 2.5 is 57.9%. This is a probability-based angle, not a sure bet.
Reasoning: Millwall average 1.64 goals scored and 1.64 conceded; Derby County average 0.82 scored and 1.82 conceded. Combining attacking and defensive output with a home adjustment favours home win. Reassess once team news is confirmed.