FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualifying – UEFA Group I

Match date: Sunday 16 November 2025

Local kick-off time: 20:45 Europe/Rome (CET, UTC+1). Global listings note 19:45 UTC.

Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro), Milan, Italy.

Fixture hubs and match info confirmed by UEFA and ESPN.

Match Preview

The final night in UEFA Group I brings a heavyweight conclusion at San Siro as Italy host perfect leaders Norway. It is a straight test of momentum and margins: Italy’s late surge under Gennaro Gattuso has secured at least a playoff berth, but the Azzurri still require a win and a huge swing in goal difference to snatch first place. Norway, flawless through seven games, arrive with confidence and firepower to finish the job on the pitch where so many Italian nights have been decided.

Setting and stakes: the 80,000 seat San Siro concentrates noise and tension, and the slot at 20:45 local time adds the prime time edge that suits a group decider. Norway’s position is commanding after a 4-1 win against Estonia on November 13, a performance that again showcased Erling Haaland’s finishing and Alexander Sorloth’s penalty box craft. Italy, for their part, come home buoyed by a 2-0 win in Chisinau the same evening, decided by late goals that preserved a six match winning run and kept faint top spot hopes mathematically alive.

Recent history has colored this rivalry in both directions. Norway opened the campaign with a statement 3-0 in Oslo back in June, when Italy’s structure was exposed by direct vertical passes and quick combination play through Antonio Nusa and Martin Odegaard. Italy have since stabilized against mid table opponents and reclaimed their defensive bite, but the memory of that night is a reference point for both camps.

Tactical picture: expect Italy to control long phases of possession with a double pivot and a front five in the attacking phase. Their chance creation has leaned toward cut backs from the byline rather than high crosses, with late edge of box shots a consistent secondary source. Norway are comfortable ceding some territory and striking through quick verticals into Haaland and Sorloth, with Odegaard coordinating from the right half space. In settled attacks, the visitors use early low crosses and pull backs rather than floated deliveries, a pattern that troubled Italy in June. If Italy’s rest defense limits those launching lanes and their counter press is clean, the Azzurri can keep Norway facing their own goal and increase set piece volume.

Key levers revolve around first goal timing and transitions. Italy have looked assertive when scoring first in this cycle, but can become stretched if they chase the game. Norway, by contrast, have repeatedly accelerated after the interval, as seen versus Estonia when they struck three times in a short burst. Expect Italy to try to flatten that momentum with tactical fouls, touchline traps and longer spells of sterile possession after they take the lead or following Norway surges.

Personnel trends: Norway’s headline is Haaland’s sustained output and the secondary scoring of Sorloth, with Odegaard and Nusa supplying progressive carries and final passes. Italy’s goals have been more distributed of late, with Mateo Retegui, Francesco Pio Esposito and set piece threats like Gianluca Mancini contributing at critical moments. The selection nuance for Gattuso will be balancing an aggressive front five with enough recovery speed at full back to handle Norwegian counters.

Bottom line: market pricing frames an even to slight Italy edge on home soil, but the table and underlying scoring power still favor Norway overall. The likely match shape is Italy monopolizing possession while Norway carve the better transition chances. If the hosts score early, a multi goal Italy win comes into view. If Norway strike first or reach the hour at level, the visitors become strong favorites to preserve their unbeaten record.

TV Broadcast and Livestreams

• Italy: RAI 1 and RaiPlay are carrying Italy’s European Qualifiers domestically.
• United Kingdom: Most non home nation European Qualifiers are on Amazon Prime Video PPV. Listings show Italy vs Norway on Prime in the UK.
• United States: FS1 with streaming on Fubo and ViX hold coverage for this fixture. 
• Global: Check UEFA’s official Where to watch index for your territory’s licensed partner. Selections vary by region and are subject to change.

Match Information

Kick-off, venue and identifiers verified via UEFA and ESPN.

Odds (1X2)

Prices update frequently and vary by jurisdiction. Check your bookmaker close to kick-off.

Form and Head-to-Head

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Head-to-Head – recent meetings

H2H and historical record via ESPN match page.

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Standings

Table snapshot ahead of kick-off per ESPN.

Prediction

Pick: Italy 1-1 Norway

Reasoning: Italy’s home control and recent run under Gattuso argue for at least a point, but Norway’s transition quality and elite finishing have been decisive all cycle. Markets lean narrowly toward Italy, while the standings and data lean toward Norway avoiding defeat. A balanced script with one goal each matches both form lines and incentive structures on the final night.