Flamengo are coming off their second defeat in thirteen Brasileirao matches, which has seen them lose touch with the top of the table, now occupied by Cruzeiro (who have played one game more).
But it was also a difficult midweek round for their cousins Fluminense: after the glories of the Club World Cup, with Renato Portaluppi’s men capable of surprising everyone by finishing in the top four and challenging the European giants – the only South American team in the semi-finals – the Tricolor Carioca succumbed to a rampant Cruzeiro (0-2), ending a positive run in the league that had lasted since the beginning of May. There is no shortage of ideas for analyzing what remains one of the most heated and passionate derbies in Brazilian football, aptly named Fla-Flu. Flamengo is counting on home advantage: along with Cruzeiro, Bahia, Botafogo, Atletico Mineiro, and Mirassol, it is still unbeaten in front of its fans, having collected five wins and two draws.
A few too many absences for Flamengo
The goal of Filipe Luis’s men – who also did very well in the Club World Cup, reaching the round of 16 against Bayern Munich – is to prove that last Wednesday’s defeat at Santos (0-1, with Neymar scoring the decisive goal a few minutes from the end) was just a hiccup.
Fluminense are also eager to bounce back. Unlike their rivals, they are far from the top of the table, currently in seventh place, 10 points behind the leaders, and must do everything possible to make up ground. However, the Tricolor’s away form is not impressive: Thiago Silva and his teammates have won only twice in six games played away from home. The Colombian striker Arias, who has moved to Wolverhampton, will obviously not be playing in the derby: Soteldo will take his place. There are several absences for Flamengo, starting with the suspended Bruno Henrique: Ayrton Lucas, Pulgar, Alex Sandro, and Michael will also be missing.
Odds comparison
The “Under 2.5” bet is priced at 1.48 on Goldbet, Lottomatica, and Snai. A Flamengo win is priced at 1.77 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and 1.75 on Snai.
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The prediction
Only away wins in the last two matches in the Brasileirao. In the Brazilian top flight, Flamengo’s last home win against their cousins dates back to six years ago. Eleven of the last twelve matches – including those played in the state championships – have ended with under 2.5 goals, and we don’t expect much of a spectacle this time either, considering that Flamengo is the team that has conceded the fewest shots so far (one goal conceded every 20 shots) and has only conceded one goal in front of their fans. The Rossoneri are slight favorites.
Probable line-ups for Flamengo-Fluminense
FLAMENGO (4-3-3): Rossi, Wesley, Léo Ortiz, Léo Pereira and Varela; Allan, Jorginho and Arrascaeta; Luiz Araújo, Plata, and Wallace Yan. FLUMINENSE (4-4-2): Fábio; Samuel Xavier, Thiago Silva, Ignácio, and Freytes; Renê; Martinelli, Hércules, and Nonato; Soteldo and Cano. POSSIBLE RESULT: 1-0