In the last round of the qualifying group, Ecuador recorded another 0-0 draw, their fourth in a row. In Paraguay, the Tricolor attack once again failed to score, but on the flip side, the defense proved to be very solid: in the last 10 games, a streak in which they have not lost a single game, Sebastian Beccacece’s team has conceded just one goal.
Impressive defensive statistics, therefore, for Ecuador, which, despite scoring few goals—together with Paraguay, it has the worst attack of the top seven—has built its qualification for the 2026 World Cup on the imperviousness of its rearguard, the least beaten of all with just five goals conceded. Without the 3-point penalty, the Tricolor would be second in the standings behind world champions Argentina, their next opponent in round 18, the last of the Conmebol qualifiers.
Both teams have long since secured their place in the World Cup, which is why the match in Guayaquil is essentially a friendly. Meanwhile, the Albiceleste enjoyed yet another show from Leo Messi, who scored twice in last week’s 3-0 win over Venezuela. For the player who has won the Ballon d’Or eight times, it was his last match played at home wearing his country’s colors: in the next World Cup, in fact, for obvious reasons of age, the former Barcelona player—now at Inter Miami—will bid farewell to the national team. The goal now is to end the group stage with yet another victory: in 17 games, Argentina has racked up 12 wins and scored an impressive 31 goals. Scaloni, without Messi and the suspended Romero, is expected to make several changes to the lineup that faced Venezuela.
Odds comparison
The “No Goals” bet is quoted at 1.60 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and at 1.67 on Snai. The “Under 2.5” bet is quoted at 1.40 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and at 1.45 on Snai.
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The prediction
Over the last five years, Ecuador has often proved to be a tough nut to crack for Argentina, which has not beaten the Tricolor away since 2017. Although neither team has any concrete objectives left in this group, it will be a real match in Guayaquil: victory for the Albiceleste is by no means a foregone conclusion – much will also depend on the lineup that the coach fields – in a match in which the total number of goals is likely to be less than three.
Probable lineups for Ecuador vs. Argentina
ECUADOR (4-4-2): Galíndez; Ordoñez, Pacho, Hincapié, Estupiñán; Caicedo, Franco, Gonzalo Plata, Yeboah; Kevin Rodríguez, Valencia.
ARGENTINA (4-2-3-1): Emiliano Martínez; Molina, Otamendi, Balerdi, Tagliafico; De Paul, Mac Allister; Mastantuono, Nico Paz, Thiago Almada; Julián Álvarez. POSSIBLE RESULT: 0-1