FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualifying – UEFA Group D

Match date: Sunday 16 November 2025

Local kick-off time: 21:00 Asia/Baku (AZT, UTC+4). The global listing for this fixture is 17:00 UTC.

Venue: Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium, Baku, Azerbaijan.

Fixture identification and competition page: UEFA and trusted listings.

Match Preview

A decisive Group D evening awaits in the Caspian capital as Azerbaijan host group leaders France at the historic Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium. The scheduling places kick-off at 21:00 local time in Baku, aligning with 17:00 UTC, and the stakes are clear. France arrive as confirmed group winners after a commanding 4-0 victory over Ukraine on November 13, while Azerbaijan seek a strong finish in front of their home crowd. }

Azerbaijan are typically compact and hard working in a 4-1-4-1 or 4-2-3-1, trying to keep the central corridor crowded before springing direct counters into the channels. When they can slow the tempo and funnel France toward earlier crosses, their center backs benefit from clearer aerial duels. Transitions and set pieces are Azerbaijan’s best route to high value chances, and the first 15 minutes will be about clarity in rest defense and discipline around their own box.

France under Didier Deschamps continue to manage games through structure and control. In possession they rotate smartly in the half spaces, create angles for cut backs rather than hopeful deliveries, and maintain a strong rest shape to prevent counters. Their qualifying window shows both authority and depth: a 3-0 win over Azerbaijan in Paris on October 10 was followed by a 2-2 draw away to Iceland and then that emphatic 4-0 win against Ukraine. Expect France to probe patiently, pin second balls around the box and test the goalkeeper with low driven finishes and far post runs.

Key battlegrounds: the half spaces just outside Azerbaijan’s area and the channels behind the home full backs. If France’s creators receive between the lines on the half turn, they can manufacture repeated cut backs that often decide matches. Conversely, when Azerbaijan force turnovers and immediately find the outside lanes, they can attack the space behind France’s advanced full backs before the visitors reset their rest defense.

Psychology and history lean toward France. The recent head-to-head finished 3-0 to Les Bleus in Paris, and the historical reference point is the famous 10-0 in Euro 1996 qualifying. Those results underline the gap, but they also warn against complacency in Baku, where the crowd can lift the hosts and the late kick-off concentrates pressure on the favorite. The first goal carries outsize influence: if France strike early, territory and chance volume tend to snowball; if Azerbaijan hold out to the hour, the tie can become scrappier and more transition heavy.

Bottom line: data and market pricing back a French win, but game state matters. Azerbaijan’s best path is a controlled first half, aggressive protection of the central lane, and accuracy on counters and dead balls. France’s depth and control phases remain decisive advantages, especially if they score first and can dictate where the match is played.

TV Broadcast and Livestreams

• Azerbaijan: CBC Sport holds European Qualifiers rights.
• France: TF1+ and L’Equipe are listed UEFA partners for European Qualifiers coverage. Check local schedules.
• United Kingdom: Prime Video UK carries non home nations qualifiers, and listings show Azerbaijan vs France in the Sunday slot.
• United States: Fox Sports and Fubo are UEFA partners for European Qualifiers.
• Global: See UEFA’s full partners list for your territory. Exact selections vary by region and are subject to late change.

Match Information

Kick-off, venue and timezone verified via Sofascore and time zone references.

Odds (1X2)

Prices update frequently and vary by jurisdiction. Check your bookmaker near kick-off.

Form and Head-to-Head

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Head-to-Head – recent meetings

H2H confirmed via ESPN and UEFA historical archives.

Standings

Group D table position per ESPN and UEFA group pages ahead of this fixture.

Prediction

Pick: Azerbaijan 0-3 France

Reasoning: France’s control phases, depth and recent results point strongly to an away win. The market heavily favors the visitors, and the reverse meeting ended 3-0. Azerbaijan’s route is through set pieces and fast counters, but France’s rest defense and chance creation around the box make a multi goal margin likely if the first goal arrives early.