In a crucial European qualifier, **Finland** take on **Lithuania** in what promises to be a stern test for both sides. This Finland vs Lithuania prediction & analysis explores squad updates, head-to-head history, recent form, tactical battle and a computed forecast.

Team news: injuries, absences & lineup insights

Finland – squad availability & challenges

Finland approach this qualifier with several notable absences. According to FotMob, **Adam Markhiev**, **Fredrik Jensen**, **Glen Kamara**, **Lukas Hradecky**, and **Miro Tenho** are all ruled out through injury. ([FotMob lineups]) Coach will need to pivot in defense and midfield, possibly bringing in backup depth or adjusting system to compensate. Up front, established attackers like **Joel Pohjanpalo** may carry more responsibility.

Lithuania – constraints & tactical hints

Lithuania appear to have fewer injury issues; the only noted absentee is **Justas Lasickas**, listed as unavailable. ([FotMob lineups]) That relative continuity could be an advantage. Their approach is likely cautious on the road, focusing on organization, pressing in midfield, and transitional breaks when Finland overextend.

Head-to-head record: meetings & trends

Historical data shows that Finland have played Lithuania several times. Their all-time record sees Finland with **3 wins**, **1 draw**, and **2 losses** in the fixture. ([11v11 H2H]) More recently, FootballPunter’s head-to-head summary records 3 matches between them: Finland win 0, Lithuania win 1, draws 2. ([SoccerPunter]) In their most recent meeting, the game ended **2–2** (Lithuania 2, Finland 2) on 24 March 2025 in World Cup qualifying. In that match, Finland had 56.1% possession, 13 shot attempts, and 4 on target; Lithuania had 11 attempts, 6 on target. The scorers: Armandas Kucys, Gvidas Gineitis for Lithuania; Kaan Kairinen and Joel Pohjanpalo (penalty) for Finland. ([ESPN match report])

The recent draw shows how even these sides can be. Finland’s historical edge is tempered by Lithuania’s occasional upset capability.

Form & statistical profile

In the World Cup 2026 qualifying Group G, Finland and Lithuania are both in contention. Group G comprises Finland, Lithuania, Malta, Netherlands, and Poland. ([Wikipedia Group G]) According to Sofascore, prior to this fixture Finland occupy 3rd place, while Lithuania hold 4th. ([Sofascore match page])

In their March 2025 meeting, Lithuania surprised Finland with a draw. Finland held more possession (56.1% to 43.9%) and produced more shots (13 to 11). But efficiency and finishing tilted the balance. ([ESPN report]) Historically, Finland score more often at home; Lithuania have shown they can frustrate top sides with disciplined defending and opportunist counters.

Tactical analysis: shape, styles & matchups

Likely formations & strategic setup

Finland may deploy a **4-3-3** or **4-2-3-1**, depending on defensive absences, with emphasis on width and midfield control. They may lean on their more attack-oriented players to break through. Lithuania are likely to choose a **4-4-2** or **4-5-1**, focusing on structure and compactness, seeking to absorb pressure and exploit transitions via their forwards or wide runners.

Playing style & match rhythm

Finland’s approach could be possession-based, probing with overlaps, switching play, and seeking combinations in the final third. However, absences in defense and midfield may force them to be cautious. Lithuania’s style on the road will likely be pragmatic: defend deep, stay disciplined in block, and counter when Finland push forward. Set piece and second ball situations may be vital.

Key duels & influencing factors

• Finland’s full-backs / wingers vs Lithuania’s wide midfielders – which side gains dominance?
• Central midfield control – with Finland’s injuries this might be more contested than usual.
• Conversion & finishing – in tight qualifiers, the side that capitalizes on few chances often wins.

Prediction & forecast

Considering Finland’s home advantage and deeper squad, they hold a slight edge. But Lithuania’s resilience and recent draw show they cannot be discounted.

Predicted outcome: Finland win, **2–1**. Betting suggestions: **Both Teams to Score = Yes**, **Over 2.5 goals**, narrow home win.