JAPAN – CROATIA | Monday 4pm
If there was a special ‘surprise’ prize to be awarded to the team capable of completely overturning the odds in the group stage of Qatar 2022, Japan would be unrivalled. The Nipponese seemed to have no chance of qualification, drawn in an impossible group with two battleships such as Spain and Germany. The first two places in Group E were – on paper – reserved for the Germans and Spaniards, but Luis Enrique and Hansi Flick had not reckoned with the courageous Blue Samurai, a starless but tight-knit group, all grit, running and self-sacrifice, who were able to get the better – on both occasions with a result of 2-1 and always at the end of a sensational comeback – of the selections that have won two of the last three editions of the World Championship.
In fact, Japan achieved something epic at this World Cup, even finishing in first place ahead of the Red Furies. And now they don’t start off beaten in the round of 16 with Croatia, perhaps one of the most balanced and uncertain finals.
Japan’s incredible feat
A feat destined to go down in history and which began with the incredible success in the opener against Germany. Muller and his team-mates had essentially dominated the first half, missing countless goals and taking the lead only minutes before going into the locker room, moreover on a penalty kick. But as soon as Flick’s team lifted their foot off the accelerator, they were punished by two deadly Japanese counter-attacks: Asano and Doan, two players who have been playing in the Bundesliga for some time, ended up on the cover. Japan had then made harakiri – and here we have the great paradox – with the weakest selection in the group, Costa Rica.
Fuller’s mocking turnaround shot a few minutes before the 90th minute sounded like a verdict on their chances of reaching the round of 16, especially as the men led by coach Hajime Moriyasu would then have to beat Spain, in anticipation of a probable German victory over the South Americans. Against the Roja, however, another sporting miracle happened: Doan and Tanaka came back from Morata’s goal early in the first half, scoring on two of only three shots towards Unai Simon’s goal. But the most singular aspect was the ball possession: never before in World Cup history has a team come out on top with an 18% percentage.
Croatia through to the round of 16 with minimal effort
Modric
Reigning world vice-champions Croatia, who advanced to the round of 16 as runners-up behind another Qatar 2022 surprise, Morocco, will certainly have taken notes. Unlike Japan, however, the Middle Eastern adventure of Zlatko Dalic’s men did not start with fireworks. Despite remaining undefeated, Modric and his team-mates only confirmed the eve’s expectations against Canada (4-1) on the second day: there the real offensive potential of the Croatians was seen, who were unleashed (Kramaric, Livaja and Majer scored twice) after having gone down almost immediately.
Croatia’s attack – perhaps paying the price for the absence of a role striker – then fired blanks against Morocco and Belgium, collecting two 0-0s. The performance in the second half of the in-or-out match against the Red Devils was a cause for concern, with the red and white selection repeatedly threatening to go down – they would have been eliminated if they had been knocked out – and if they managed to keep their goal unbroken it was mainly due to the wet powder of black and white striker Lukaku.
Japan-Croatia: the latest line-up news
Moriyasu is expected to confirm the 3-4-3 he admired against Spain, a formation that particularly enhances the speed of the attacking flanks. This time Kamada and Doan will join Maeda at the front, the latter preferred to Kubo after his second goal as a substitute. No changes in midfield, where in addition to the experienced Nagatomo, ready to go back and forth on the flank, Ito, Morita and Tanaka will also play. Obligatory change in defence: former Bologna man Tomiyasu will take the place of the disqualified Itakura.
The Croatian coach has no injury problems and will field the standard formation. A very technical midfield with Modric, Brozovic and Kovacic, while up front the usual Kramaric, Livaja and Perisic will act. The Real Madrid star will have to watch out for yellow cards: in the event of a caution, he and Lovren will miss the possible fourth.
The Prediction
Japan have nothing to lose and will look to impress again, attempting to overcome that obstacle (i.e. round of 16) which has always been a taboo in the past in the final phase of a World Cup. It is not a foregone conclusion, as Japan’s two exploits against Spain and Germany prove. But on Croatia’s side there is more experience and greater quality, two ingredients that make the difference at this level. Dalic’s team will, in our opinion, avoid defeat in regulation play, in the context of a match in which both should score on at least one occasion.
Japan-Croatia line-up probables
- JAPAN (3-4-3): Gonda; Tomiyasu, Taniguchi, Yoshida; Ito, Morita, Tanaka, Nagatomo; Doan, Maeda, Kamada.
- CROATIA (4-3-3): Livakovic; Juranovic, Lovren, Gvardiol, Sosa; Modric, Brozovic, Kovacic; Kramaric, Livaja, Perisic.
POSSIBLE RESULT: 1-2
