France-Morocco is a match in the semi-finals of the 2022 World Cup and will be played on Wednesday at 20:00: odds, predictions, TV and streaming.
Some have called it a fratricidal clash. And in fact France and Morocco, apart from their strong linguistic ties – French is still the second most spoken language in the Maghreb country – have much more in common than one might think. So much so that we can safely consider it as a sort of ‘transnational derby’.
But no one, no one at all – except for former Inter striker Samuel Eto’o, whose crazy prediction on the eve of the match had initially aroused the hilarity of many – could have imagined that the two national football teams would one day even compete in a World Cup final. The title-holding team, which is aiming for a historic double – a feat only achieved so far by Italy (1934 and 1938) and Brazil (1958 and 1962) – by winning its second consecutive triumph after Russia 2018, and the great revelation of this atypical autumn World Cup, ready to surprise again.
With Africa as the common denominator. On the one hand, we have a selection team that has based its successes on multi-ethnicity for decades: in the Qatari expedition, selector Deschamps can count on no less than thirteen players boasting African origins.
On the other hand, the mythological Atlas Lions of Walid Regragui – born in France and brought up in the transalpine country, like many of its men – protagonists of the most striking and exciting football fairytale of recent years. Never before has an African (and Arab) selection made it to the top four in the history of the World Cup. Their World Cup, one might say, Ziyech and his teammates have already won it. But they have not. At the Al-Bayt Stadium in Al Kohr, the northernmost city in Qatar, they will attempt to write another indelible page, also driven by extra-sports motivations.
France mature and in total control
The numerous defections it had to deal with on the eve of the tournament prevented France from starting as the big favourite in Qatar. And perhaps it was even good, from a psychological point of view, to stay behind the two South Americans.
Deschamps’ good fortune, however, is that he can rely on an inordinate amount of talent, to the point of remaining one of the strongest selections on paper even without players of the calibre of Benzema (reigning Golden Ball winner), Kanté, Kimbembe, Maignan, Pogba and Nkunku. Someone, just for fun, had tried to draw up an injured line-up: the result – crazy – is that that eleven would have been well able to make it to the end of the competition. France has so far not disappointed expectations, exploiting its physical might, the technical qualities of its offensive players and the plays of individuals. It always has the feeling that it can win matches, even in those circumstances when the opponent seemed to be playing better.
In the group, it closed the accounts almost immediately, overwhelming Australia 4-1 and narrowly beating Denmark. The defeat against Tunisia (1-0) with qualification already in the bag was irrelevant.
In the round of 16, Mbappé – the top scorer with five goals – was again in the limelight, taming Poland 3-1 with two feats. Finally, the 2-1 victory against England in the quarter-finals: the Psg phenomenon was in the shadow in the match against the English, but it was Tchouaméni and Giroud who chastened Southgate’s selection, who missed the penalty of the possible 2-2 with Kane. Deschamps and his side have the third-best attack in the World Cup with 11 goals, but defensively they are not solid, conceding at least one goal per game.
Morocco’s incredible defensive display
But while it was normal to expect such a run from a selection such as France, one cannot help but be open-mouthed when looking at Morocco’s surprising numbers. The Lions of the Atlas went into this historic semi-final unbeaten, having conceded barely a single goal (defender Aguerd’s own goal against Canada). They finished ahead of everyone in their group – ahead of the other semi-finalist Croatia – thanks to two wins over Belgium and Canada and a draw with the Croatians.
En-Nesyri’s goal against Portugal
But Morocco’s real masterpiece came in the knockout phase, where they sent home two teams of superior calibre such as Spain (beaten on penalties) and Portugal, pierced 1-0 by Sevilla striker En-Nesyri’s goal. A perfect orchestra directed masterfully by Walid Regragui: exemplary tactical organisation, iron defence and many players who are giving their best in Qatar, such as the various Amrabat, Aguerd, Boufal, as well as the starlet Ounahi and the certainties Ziyech and Hakimi.
Scoring goals against Morocco is tremendously difficult: the 4-3-3 turns into a 4-5-1 in the non-possession phase and is astonishing for its extraordinary compactness. Luis Enrique and Fernando Santos fell into Regragui’s ‘trap’, breaking against the Moroccan wall, limiting themselves to sterile dribbling and exposing themselves to dangerous counter-attacks.
France-Morocco: the latest line-up news
No changes for Deschamps, who will go for the same eleven that got the better of England. Upamecano and Varane will protect Lloris’ goal, with Theo Hernandez and Koundé – the latter has now replaced Pavard – at full-back. In the midfield, the tight-knit pair of Tchouaméni-Rabiot will be back, while in attack, the unbridled Giroud – the AC Milan player’s centimetres could prove decisive – will be supported by the triad formed by Dembélé, Griezmann (his contribution is invaluable) and Mbappé.
Ragragui’s doubts are almost exclusively related to the injured Aguerd and Mazraoui. If they do not make it, El Yamiq and Attiyat Allah, both starters against Portugal, are ready. The other defender Saiss is also not at his best, but should grit his teeth. Bari striker Cheddira, who was disqualified for the semi-final, will be absent.
Regragui
The Prediction
Seven French wins, three draws and one Moroccan victory. These are the precedents. The last one, a friendly, dates back to 2007 and ended 2-2. The question is one. Will France be able to break through an airtight defence, on which so many have crashed so far? If Deschamps’ men should find the lead, especially in the first half, then the scenario could change completely, with Morocco in danger of uncovering themselves and thus becoming more vulnerable, especially on the outside. If, on the other hand, the rearguard – which could be deprived of some key players – holds out as it did against Spain and Portugal, we could see a contracted and rather nervous match. And in which yellow cards are likely to abound, as there are no cautions.
Watch out, then, for duels in the middle of the pitch, especially the one on the right flank between Mbappé and Hakimi, friends for the skin and teammates in the Psg. No less important is the one between the two defensive midfielders Tchouaméni and Amrabat, whose work so far has been invaluable. And the same goes for Griezmann, reborn as an ’embroiderer’ between the transalpine lines of play. The feeling, then, is that Morocco will once again sell their skins dearly but that in the end France will come out on top in a match with at least one goal each, considering that the reigning champions have never had their goals unbroken.
France v Morocco squad
- FRANCE (4-2-3-1): Lloris; Koundé, Varane, Upamecano, T. Hernandez; Tchouaméni, Rabiot; Dembélé, Griezmann, Mbappé; Giroud.
- MOROCCO (4-3-3): Bono; Hakimi, El Yamiq, Aguerd, Mazraoui; Ounahi, Amrabat, Amallah; Ziyech, En-Nesyri, Boufal.
POSSIBLE RESULT: 2-1
