Lecce vs Napoli Prediction and Analysis (26 October 2025 – 19:45 CET)
The Stadio Via del Mare hosts a fascinating Serie A encounter on Sunday, 26 October 2025, as Lecce welcome defending champions Napoli for a 19:45 CET kickoff. The two sides come into the fixture from very different trajectories — Lecce fighting to steady their form in mid-table, while Napoli look to regain their rhythm in pursuit of another Scudetto challenge.
Latest team news and potential line-ups
Lecce boss Roberto D’Aversa continues to build a side defined by structure and spirit, though recent results have highlighted attacking inefficiency. The hosts will likely line up in a compact 4-3-3, anchored by Medon Berisha and Alexis Blin in midfield. Winger Gabriel Strefezza returns after a minor calf issue, while Lameck Banda is expected to provide pace on the counter. Striker Roberto Piccoli remains the focal point up front, supported by the creativity of Pontus Almqvist. Centre-back Federico Baschirotto is available again after serving a suspension, adding steel to Lecce’s defensive line.
Napoli travel south with renewed energy under Francesco Calzona. Star forward Victor Osimhen is fit and firing after missing early-season games, while Khvicha Kvaratskhelia continues to shine on the left wing. Midfield maestro Stanislav Lobotka will anchor the play, flanked by Piotr Zieliński and André-Frank Zambo Anguissa. Defensively, Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Amir Rrahmani remain mainstays, though Juan Jesus may replace the injured Leo Østigård. Goalkeeper Alex Meret retains his spot after a strong showing last week.
Head-to-head record and historical context
Napoli have dominated recent meetings with Lecce, winning four of their last five encounters. The reverse fixture last season ended 4–0 in favour of Napoli, with Osimhen and Kvaratskhelia both on the scoresheet. Lecce’s last victory against the Naples giants came in February 2020 — a memorable 3–2 win at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium. Historically, Napoli’s attacking flair has often overpowered Lecce’s defensive resistance, though the home side have occasionally sprung surprises in Puglia.
Form guide and statistical breakdown
Lecce currently sit 12th in Serie A with 11 points from 9 matches, but their early-season momentum has faded. They are winless in their last four league games, scoring only twice in that stretch. At home, however, they’ve been resilient — suffering just one defeat in five. Banda and Almqvist remain key creative forces, while Berisha’s work rate has provided defensive balance.
Napoli, in contrast, are climbing steadily after a mixed start to their title defence. They sit 4th in the table with 19 points, boasting the second-best attack in the league with 22 goals scored. Osimhen has six goals in seven appearances, while Kvaratskhelia has contributed four assists and three goals. Napoli’s away form has also been impressive, with three wins from four road fixtures, averaging over two goals per match.
Tactical analysis – Lecce’s resilience vs Napoli’s precision
Lecce will look to frustrate Napoli by defending deep and closing the central lanes. Their compact shape forces opponents wide, and Baschirotto’s aerial strength is crucial in repelling crosses. The challenge will be maintaining that discipline under sustained pressure — especially against Napoli’s fluid front three. Banda’s pace on transitions could exploit the spaces left behind Di Lorenzo’s forward runs.
Napoli’s possession game under Calzona has become more vertical and decisive compared to earlier in the season. Expect Lobotka to dictate tempo while Zieliński drifts between the lines to link with Kvaratskhelia. The key duel will be Kvaratskhelia vs Gendrey — the Georgian’s dribbling against Lecce’s most aggressive full-back. If Napoli can stretch Lecce’s defensive block, their technical superiority should prevail.
Prediction and betting insight
Lecce’s organisation at home may delay Napoli’s rhythm, but sustained pressure and superior individual quality are likely to tell as the match progresses. Osimhen’s presence changes the entire attacking dynamic, while Kvaratskhelia’s creativity can unlock even the tightest defence. Expect Lecce to compete early but fade against the visitors’ pace and precision.
Predicted score: Lecce 1 – 3 Napoli
Betting tips: Napoli to Win, Over 2.5 Goals, Osimhen to Score Anytime.
Summary
Sunday night in Lecce promises an intriguing tactical battle between discipline and dynamism. The hosts will rely on collective effort and counter-attacks, while Napoli’s refined attacking movement should ultimately prove decisive. With Osimhen and Kvaratskhelia in form, the visitors enter as clear favourites to take all three points and maintain pressure on the Serie A leaders.