Remembering what happened last year, Porto needs to start off with its foot on the gas to reduce the 2025/2026 Premier League antepost prediction: who will win the championship according to Opta
The countdown is almost over, the 2025/2026 Premier League is about to kick off. Who will win the richest league in the world? As has become tradition, Opta provides an initial answer, with data processed by its supercomputer and projections that are important guidelines, as was the case in the recent Club World Cup, where it predicted Chelsea as the winner in the round of 16.
Everyone expected a close fight for the title last year, with Manchester City, Arsenal, and Liverpool favored to push each other as they had done in the previous season. Instead, Liverpool strolled to its second Premier League title and 20th English top-flight championship (equaling the record), clinching first place with four games to spare.
According to the supercomputer, Arne Slot had just a 5.1% chance of winning the Premier League in his first season at Anfield last summer, but now, understandably, the odds of the Dutch coach achieving the big goal again are much higher. There were many changes on the pitch in the summer, with the departures of Trent Alexander-Arnold and Luis Díaz, while the tragic death of Diogo Jota will be felt by the club and beyond for a long time to come.
New signings Florian Wirtz, Milos Kerkez, Jeremie Frimpong, and Hugo Ekitiké fuel the Reds’ hopes of continuing their successful run, and the supercomputer believes they will succeed. Liverpool are favorites to win the title, achieving this in 28.5% of simulations. Arsenal have finished second in the last three seasons, a statistic that is now beginning to be used as a criticism of them. This is perhaps an unfair assessment, considering that finishing second in such a competitive league is still a great achievement, but fans are hoping that this will finally be the year the Gunners take the final step and win the title.Mikel Arteta has finally added a top striker to the squad: Viktor Gyökeres. The Swedish center forward’s ability to maintain the same scoring consistency in England as he had in Portugal will be crucial to Arsenal’s title ambitions. According to Opta’s supercomputer, the Gunners’ chances of winning the Premier League have almost doubled compared to last season (from 12.2% to 24.3%), although the most likely prediction remains a fourth consecutive second-place finish.
Manchester City, who were looking for their fifth consecutive title last year, have slumped, mainly due to Rodri’s serious knee injury, which kept him out for most of the season. Now the Spaniard is back, and Pep Guardiola expects the team to return to the high standards they are accustomed to. Last year, the supercomputer had them as clear favorites, with an 82.2% chance of winning the league, but this prediction has understandably been reduced ahead of the 2025-26 season. City only wins the title in 18.8% of simulations.
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minimum the possibility of encountering damaging setbacks. However, Farioli’s team will have to face Vitoria Guimaraes in their Primera Liga debut, a tough team that is always difficult to play against and is coming off a very interesting preseason.
The signs shown in the (few) weeks of preparation for the new season are encouraging for the former Ajax coach, who can count on a core group of players that has been cemented over the years. The victories against Twente and Atletico Madrid have set the course, although the league will likely be a different story. With few spaces to attack given the likely approach of the visitors, who will try to keep their center of gravity low, drying up the Dragoes’ passing lanes to hit them with quick vertical passes, Porto will have to be very good at moving the ball around without forcing plays.
Porto-Guimaraes prediction: the hosts should get off to a good start
Easy to say, much more complicated to achieve, not least because Correia Pinto’s men know how to interpret the various moments of the game and, as mentioned, they come into the game on the back of a preseason in which they collected six wins and two draws.
The 4-2-3-1 formation with which the visitors take to the field at the Do Dragao is only seemingly unorthodox; in reality, it is a mix of youth, daring, and experience and should quickly adapt to the diktat imposed by Porto. However, the technical ability of the two squads inevitably favors Farioli’s boys, who want to mark their official debut with a victory. Nevertheless, Omorodion and his teammates are not expecting an easy task that can be dismissed en passant.
In summary: our prediction sees Porto as favorites and ready to take all three points in a game in which one to four goals should be scored. We do not expect Guimaraes to be overwhelmed, precisely because Oliveira and his teammates will try to stand up to their opponents with the weapons at their disposal.
PROBABLE LINE-UPS
PORTO (3-4-3): Claudio Ramos; Fernandes, Pedro, Prpic; Pepê, Varela, Veiga, Sainz; Danny Namaso, Omorodion, Mora.
VITORIA GUIMARAES (4-3-2-1): Varela, Maga, Borevkovic, Rika, Mendes; Beni, Tiago Silva; Felice, Arcanjo, Gustavo; Oliveira.
RESULT PREDICTION: 2-0