Poland has been drawn in Group G, alongside Finland, Lithuania, and Malta. However, the name of the fifth team to complete this group is still unknown: it will be either reigning European champions Spain or the Netherlands, but we will only know for sure after the outcome of the Nations League quarter-final between La Roja and the Oranje. In theory, the Poles should therefore battle it out with the Finns for second place, which is worth a place in the playoffs.
Michal Probierz’s team, in any case, cannot afford to underestimate any opponent after last autumn’s disastrous Nations League campaign. In League A, Lewandowski and his teammates scored only four points, finishing last and bitterly relegated to League B.
The only joy of that campaign was a 3-2 victory in their debut against Scotland. Then it was almost exclusively disappointment, with the exception of a dramatic home draw with Croatia. The number of goals conceded by the red and whites was particularly impressive: 16 in just six games. The coach will therefore have to pay more attention to the defensive phase if he wants to avoid unpleasant surprises in the North American World Cup qualifiers. The first match against the not-so-irresistible Lithuania is also crucial. The Balts are coming off six consecutive defeats, which have prevented them from collecting a single point in Group 2 of League C, which also includes Romania, Kosovo, and Cyprus. Relegation to League D is inevitable for a team that will have to do everything possible to avoid finishing in last place (it will be a battle with the Cypriots). Inter midfielder Zielinski is not in the Poland squad due to injury. The ever-present Lewandowski is in, however. Keep an eye on Lithuanian striker Kucys, who has been on fire in his last three games with Slovenian side Celje, Fiorentina’s next opponents in the Conference League.
Odds comparison
The “Over 2.5” bet is priced at 1.52 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and at 1.53 on Snai. The “No Goals” bet is priced at 1.40 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and at 1.38 on Snai.
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Prediction
In the last five previous matches – all friendlies – Lithuania has only managed to beat Poland once, but that was back in 2011. Although the Poles have not been at their best in recent outings, they should not slip up against a team within their reach such as Lithuania: given the high scores recorded in the Nations League, we can expect a match with at least three goals in total. Lewandowski, one of the three most prolific players in UEFA qualifying (World Cup and European Championships) since 2016, could make his mark.
Probable line-ups for Poland vs. Lithuania
POLAND (3-5-2): Bulka; Cash, Bednarek, Kiwior; Kaminski, Szymanski, Moder, Slisz, Zalewski; Lewandowski, Urbanski.
LITHUANIA (3-5-2): Gertmonas; Utkus, Girdvainis, Milasius; Sirvys, Cernych, Gineitis, Remeikis, Lasickas; Kalinauskas, Kucys.
POSSIBLE RESULT: 3-0