With 25 points earned in 16 games – actually 28 without the penalty imposed by FIFA for falsifying the documents of a player, Byron Castillo – Ecuador is certain to participate in the next World Cup. La Tricolor has been the big surprise of this qualifying round, having earned the same number of points as Brazil, one of the two powerhouses along with Argentina. Currently, only La Albiceleste is ahead of Sebastian Beccacece’s team, which, as they say, has had a “championship” of its own.
The relaxation of the last few games is therefore understandable: between March and June, Ecuador did not go beyond three draws, all ending with a score of 0-0 (including the one with Carlo Ancelotti’s Brazil). As a result, their unbeaten streak has grown exponentially: their last defeat was a year ago, but what is surprising is that since then, in nine matches, Ecuador has conceded barely a goal, racking up clean sheets (the best defense in the group, better than Argentina itself).
Albirroja at the World Cup with a draw
Beccacece will still demand great concentration from his players in the match against Paraguay, who need one point to celebrate and secure their first World Cup qualification since the 2010 edition in South Africa.
La Albirroja is currently fifth, six points ahead of seventh-placed Venezuela. A draw would be enough to achieve their goal, but even if Paraguay were to end with two defeats, they could still qualify, unless Venezuela were to win both of their last two games against Argentina and Colombia, which is unlikely. Gustavo Alfaro’s team had nine consecutive positive results before their defeat against Brazil in June.
Odds comparison
The “Under 2.5” bet is quoted at 1.35 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and at 1.30 on Snai. The “No Goals” bet is quoted at 1.50 on Goldbet, Lottomatica, and Snai.
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The prediction
Ecuador, in addition to conceding few goals, has not shone in terms of scoring, especially away from home, where it has scored barely three goals. We therefore expect a tight game, in which Paraguay, who have done very well in front of their home crowd, earning the same number of points as Argentina, should manage to avoid defeat. The total number of goals is likely to be less than three.
Probable lineups for Paraguay-Ecuador
PARAGUAY (4-2-3-1): Fernandez; Caceres, G. Gomez, Alderete, Alonso; Cubas, Bobadilla; D. Gomez, Romero, Almiron; Sanabria.
ECUADOR (4-4-2): Valle; Ordonez, Pacho, Hincapie, Estupinan; Preciado, Caicedo, Vite, Angulo; Yeboah, Rodriguez.
POSSIBLE RESULT: 0-0