A decisive derby for two teams that have shown both highs and lows in the first three rounds of the championship. Lazio and Roma are still two work in progress: the Giallorossi, in particular, need to find their footing after coming back down to earth with a bump following their first defeat of the season against Torino at the Olimpico. Gian Piero Gasperini’s men had 73% possession and created 1.14% xG, but it wasn’t enough to break down the Granata defense. Torino, on the other hand, were able to capitalize on one of their rare chances with former Napoli player Simeone (0-1).
In reality, Roma had not shone offensively in their previous two games either, both narrow wins against Bologna and Pisa, decided by isolated flashes of brilliance from Wesley and Soulé. The Giallorossi coach’s message to the club was clear: last Sunday, despite the deficit, Gasperini did not throw Dovbyk, now increasingly behind in the pecking order, into the fray, having preferred to field a starting lineup without center forwards (a light attack with Soulé and Dybala). Lazio, on the other hand, confirmed that they suffer from ‘away sickness’: the Biancocelesti put in a poor performance in Reggio Emilia against Sassuolo (1-0). It was an inconsistent performance similar to that in Como on the opening day, when Romagnoli and his teammates were overwhelmed by the Larians without putting up a fight (2-0). In between the two defeats, there was a resounding 4-0 win over Verona, which for now does not allow Maurizio Sarri to see the glass as half full. To complicate matters, Rovella and Castellanos are struggling with injuries and are doubtful for the capital derby.
Lazio-Roma: the latest news on the lineups
Sarri is grappling with doubts over Castellanos: the Argentine striker has been unable to train with the team during the week and his presence is not certain. If he does not make it into the attacking trio, Dia will take his place. It is unlikely that Rovella will recover: the former Juve and Genoa player has continued to train separately and his place will be taken by Cataldi.
Dybala will not recover in time for Roma: Gasperini will field either El Shaarawy or El Aynaoui in midfield, alongside Soulè. Ferguson will start up front again, still preferred to Dovbyk. Wesley is a doubt: the Brazilian has been struggling with a stomach virus this week. The defensive trio will consist of Celik, Mancini, and N’Dicka.
Odds comparison
The “Under 2.5” bet is quoted at 1.63 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and at 1.60 on Snai. The “X2” bet is quoted at 1.40 on Goldbet Goldbete Lottomatica and at 1.38 on Snai.
- GOLDBET – Up to €3050 for sports and casino with 200% on your first sports deposit up to €1000 MORE INFO
- SNAI – €15 free + 50% on your first deposit up to €30 MORE INFO
- LOTTOMATICA – Up to €3050 for sports and casino with 200% on your first sports deposit up to €1000 MORE INFO
The prediction
Since March 2022, there have been no more than two goals in the Rome derby, including the 2024 Coppa Italia match. And given the difficulties both teams have had in terms of scoring, this trend could continue. According to the bookmakers, Roma are slight favorites, but in our opinion, it is risky to bet on a Giallorossi victory: Gasperini’s team is at the dawn of a new project and has not yet found its identity.
Probable lineups for Lazio-Roma
LAZIO (4-3-3): Provedel; Marusic, Gila, Romagnoli, Nuno Tavares; Guendouzi, Cataldi, Dele-Bashiru; Cancellieri, Castellanos, Zaccagni.
ROMA (3-4-2-1): Svilar; Celik, Mancini, N’Dicka; Wesley, Koné, Cristante, Angelino; Soulé, El Aynaoui; Ferguson.
Lazio-Roma: who will win?
Draw (51%, 43 Votes)
Roma (33%, 28 Votes)
Lazio (16%, 14 Votes)
Total Voters: 85
POSSIBLE RESULT: 1-1