The last spots are up for grabs in the Europa League championship phase. The winners of the play-offs will earn a pass to the actual competition, mPolissya Zhytomyr-Fiorentina prediction: the Ukrainians are no strangers to this result
For the fourth season in a row, Fiorentina are attempting to storm the Conference League, with the aim of breaking the “curse” – the Viola lost two finals in 2023 and 2024 – and trying to enter another dimension. Last season, the team then led by Raffaele Palladino’s run ended in the semifinals, at the end of a tight doubleheader with Spanish side Betis, who were then overwhelmed by Chelsea in the final.
Palladino is no longer on the Viola bench, having resigned after a turbulent end to the season, in which he found himself in the fans’ crosshairs despite qualifying for Europe at the last minute. Stefano Pioli, who previously coached Fiorentina from 2017 to 2019 and is fresh from a less than thrilling spell in Saudi Arabia with Cristiano Ronaldo’s Al-Nassr, is back at the helm of the Viola. The owners have managed to keep their best players—Kean stayed despite interest from Arab clubs—and the Viola fans are hoping that an experienced coach like Pioli will get the most out of the squad and make the leap in quality that the club has been waiting for for some time. Compared to Palladino, we should see a much more attacking Fiorentina: in the preseason friendlies, Pioli fielded two strikers (Kean and Dzeko) supported by Gudmundsson, who is looking to redeem himself after a disappointing season in which he was plagued by injuries.
Viola, only tough play-offs so far
While waiting for the squad to be completed by the end of the transfer window, the Viola must qualify for the Conference League group stage: in the play-off, they will face Ukrainian side Polissya Zhytomyr.
This is a challenge not to be taken lightly, considering that in the three previous play-offs (Twente, Rapid Vienna, and Puskas Akademia), Fiorentina suffered more than expected. A year ago, they even risked a sensational elimination against the Hungarians, who were only stopped by a monumental De Gea. Polissya, currently tenth in the Ukrainian league with three points from three games, has already made it through two rounds, eliminating Santa Coloma and Paksi. However, the Biancoverdi are coming off three straight defeats in the league and Conference (the cup defeat was painless, as Ruslan Rotan’s men had won 3-0 in the first leg).
Odds comparison
Fiorentina are priced at 1.35 to win on Lottomatica and Snai. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.70 on Lottomatica and Snai.
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The prediction
Fiorentina are clearly superior and favorites to win – the match will be played on neutral ground in Slovakia – but the Viola are at a particular point in the season and have shown mixed form in their friendlies (including a defeat against a Japanese university team).
It cannot be ruled out, therefore, that Polissya will manage to score at least one goal: in the four European matches played so far by the Ukrainians, there have always been more than 2.5 goals.
POLISSYA ZHYTOMYR (4-3-3): Volynets; Kravchenko, Sarapiy, Beskorovanynyi, Krushynskyi; Andryievski, Babenko, Lednev; Gutsulyak, Filippov, Nazarenko. FIORENTINA (3-4-1-2): De Gea; Comuzzo, Pongracic, Ranieri; Dodô, Sohm, Fagioli, Gosens; Gudmundsson; Dzeko, Kean. Will Fiorentina manage to keep a clean sheet? No (55%, 16 Votes) Yes (45%, 13 Votes)
Total Voters: 29
POSSIBLE RESULT: 1-2
The losers will be relegated to the Conference League, but will continue their European adventure. Panathinaikos will try to avoid what would be a second relegation: the Greeks, who have just signed former Milan player Calabria, eliminated Shakhtar Donetsk on penalties a week ago after two 0-0 draws, but before that they were knocked out by Scottish side Rangers in the preliminary rounds of Europe’s most important competition.
This time, at least on paper, the task is easier: the Athens club will face Turkish side Samsunspor, who are starting their campaign in the play-offs. Their excellent start to the league season – two wins out of two in the Super Lig for the men led by German coach Thomas Reis – bodes well for their trip to Athens, but Panathinaikos’ greater experience at this level will most likely be decisive.
Similarly, the Swedes of Malmo will try to wrap things up in the first leg: their elimination from the Champions League by Copenhagen does not seem to have left any lasting effects, as demonstrated by their resounding 4-0 victory over Halmstad in the Allsvenskan last weekend. Sigma Olomouc, which has not appeared on the continental stage for almost a decade, should not cause the Swedes too much concern. Finally, we predict a possible upset by the Dutch side Utrecht: the Eredivisie club has taken out Sheriff and Servette in the previous two rounds, scoring a total of 12 goals, and the feeling is that they will have an easy time against the Croatians of Zrinjski Mostar.
Predictions for the other matches
The Danish side Midtjylland and the Portuguese side Braga should take a serious step towards qualification by beating the Finnish side KuPS and the Gibraltarian side Lincoln Red Imps respectively. There are pitfalls, but both are clear favorites and it would not be a surprise if they managed to achieve a comfortable victory.
Young Boys will have to contend with Slovan Bratislava’s desire for redemption after their sensational elimination from the Champions League preliminaries by Kazakhstan’s Kairat Almaty: we predict at least one goal per side in Slovakia. The match between Poland’s Lech Poznan and Belgium’s Genk is also likely to produce goals.
Europa League: possible winners
Malmo (in Malmo-Sigma Olomouc)
Utrecht (in Zrinjski Mostar-Utrecht)
Panathinaikos (in Panathinaikos-Samsunspor)
Matches with at least three goals in total
Midtjylland-KuPS
Lincoln Red Imps-Braga
Europa League: matches with at least one goal per team
Slovan Bratislava-Young Boys
Lech Poznan-Genk
Odds comparison
Utrecht’s victory is quoted at 1.70 on Lottomatica and 1.67 on Snai. The “Goal” sign in Slovan Bratislava-Young Boys is quoted at 1.57 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and 1.50 on Snai.
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