After holding Brazil at bay for over 90 minutes, Colombia fell just as they were savoring the sweet taste of a precious draw at the home of the Seleçao last Friday. A goal from Real Madrid striker Vinicius Jr. (scored in the ninth minute of stoppage time) prevented the Cafeteros from ending their losing streak: in Brasilia, James Rodriguez and his teammates suffered their third consecutive defeat (2-1) in qualifying after those suffered in November against Uruguay and Ecuador.
Colombia, now slipping to sixth place, risks complicating its life and throwing away what it achieved in the first part of the qualifying round. The Cafeteros had started their adventure towards the North American World Cup on the right foot, remaining unbeaten in their first eight games (including a victory over Argentina).
Paraguay unbeaten in seven games
Since then, however, something seems to have broken: Colombia has lost four of its last five games, with only Chile coming off unscathed. In any case, Colombia’s place in North America should not be in doubt, given the reassuring gap between them and seventh-placed Bolivia, who are six points behind. The finalists of the last Copa America are looking for redemption against Paraguay in Barranquilla against a team whose mood is, to date, diametrically opposed to that of the Colombians. The arrival of new coach Gustavo Alfaro has revitalized La Albirroja, unbeaten in their last seven games after their disastrous Copa America campaign.
Paraguay has one point more than Colombia and has just narrowly beaten Chile (1-0) thanks to a goal by Alderete, a defender who plays in Spain for Getafe. While the attack continues to struggle—the second least prolific in the group—the defense remains solid: only Ecuador has conceded fewer goals than Alfaro’s men.
Odds comparison
Colombia’s victory is priced at 1.50 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and 1.55 on Snai. A ‘Goal’ is priced at 2.40 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and 2.30 on Snai.
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The prediction
Paraguay’s last win against Colombia dates back to 2017: since then, there have been four Colombian wins and two draws. The Cafeteros are eager to bounce back after three consecutive defeats, but this Albirroja side can give a team that seems to have lost its way a little in recent outings a run for their money: in this sense, the odds on “goals” are tempting, considering that Colombia has kept only one clean sheet in its last seven games.
Probable line-ups for Colombia-Paraguay
COLOMBIA (4-2-3-1): Vargas; Munoz, Cuesta, Lucumì, Mojica; Rios, Lerma; Arias, James Rodriguez, Luis Diaz; Duran.
PARAGUAY (4-4-2): Fernandez; Caceres, Balbuena, Alderete, Alonso; Galarza, Villasanti, Cubas, Almiron; Sanabria, Enciso.
POSSIBLE RESULT: 2-1