The four points earned last November in matches against Peru and Venezuela had rekindled hopes, but last Friday’s defeat in Paraguay (1-0) was a worrying setback for Chile, who will most likely be forced to watch the 2026 World Cup from home. Ricardo Gareca’s men, fresh from a truly lackluster performance in Asuncion, have slipped to last place in the South American qualifying group, overtaken by Peru.
However, the math does not spell doom for La Roja just yet: there are still five games to play, but the best Chile can hope for is seventh place, which would earn them a spot in the inter-zone playoffs. Bolivia, in fact, has only four points more – there will be a head-to-head clash in June – although Vidal and his teammates will have to face all the strongest teams between now and September: in addition to Bolivia, they will also face Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay. That is why the match in Santiago, Chile, against Ecuador is a sort of last chance to desperately try to get back in the race. The problem, however, is that La Tricolor is in great form and without the three-point penalty would be just three points behind leaders Argentina.
Led by Argentine Sebastian Beccacece, the Ecuadorians have hit the turbo in the last three games, winning three in a row against Bolivia, Colombia, and Venezuela, scoring seven goals in total and conceding only one (the best defense in the group). In short, qualification for the North American World Cup is just a step away, and all that remains is to wait for the verdict of mathematics.
Odds comparison
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The prediction
For Chile, the new bottom team in the qualifying group, it is obviously a must-win game if they want to keep their hopes alive, but it will be really tough against an Ecuador side full of confidence and coming off six positive results (four wins and two draws). The Chileans’ offensive problems—they have the second-worst attack in the qualifiers—and the solidity of the Ecuadorians suggest a match in which the total number of goals will be less than three.
Probable lineups for Chile-Ecuador
CHILE (4-3-3): Cortes; Loyola, Maripan, Diaz, Suazo; Vidal, Echeverria, Pizarro; Sanchez, Vargas, Cepeda.
ECUADOR (4-5-1): Galindez; Ordonez, Torres, Pacho, Estupinan; Plata, Vite, Caicedo, Franco, Mercado; Valencia.
POSSIBLE RESULT: 0-1