One point. Argentina needs just one point from its next five games to secure its place at the World Cup in North America. The Albiceleste is almost certain to defend the title it won in 2022 in the tournament that will be jointly hosted by the United States, Mexico, and Canada next year. The goal is within reach after their narrow victory over Uruguay in the Clásico del Río de la Plata: despite the significant absences of Lautaro Martinez, Messi, and Dybala, Lionel Scaloni’s team managed to beat La Celeste last Friday thanks to a strike from Thiago Almada (0-1), who broke the deadlock in what had been a very evenly matched game up to that point.
Argentina continues to look down on everyone else in the qualifying group: their lead over seventh-placed Bolivia is 15 points. The gap between them and second-placed Ecuador, who are six points behind the world champions, is also significant. Qualification could be mathematically secured in the highly anticipated clash with Brazil, the great South American classic and one of the most heated rivalries in the history of football. After ending 2024 with two draws (against Venezuela and Uruguay), the Verdeoro got back on track with a 2-1 win over Colombia, climbing to third place with 21 points.
Seleçao, Raphinha is the driving force
However, getting the better of the Cafeteros was no easy task: despite creating more than twice as many chances, Dorival Junior’s men only managed to win in stoppage time thanks to a goal from Real Madrid striker Vinicius, who sent the stadium in Brasilia into raptures in the ninth minute of stoppage time.
There are still many areas for improvement, but for now, individual players are making the difference: Barcelona playmaker Raphinha, for example, was by far the best player on the pitch. For the Seleçao, qualification is still a long way off, although their eight-point lead over seventh place means that Dorival and his team are safe from any nasty surprises. The Brazilian coach will not be able to count on defender Gabriel, who is suspended, and goalkeeper Alisson, who has returned to Liverpool after picking up an injury in Brasilia. Argentina, meanwhile, will be without Nico Gonzalez, who was sent off in the final minutes of the match in Montevideo for a kick on Uruguay’s Nandez.
Odds comparison
A goal is priced at 2.10 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and 2.05 on Snai. A draw is priced at 1.67 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and 1.60 on Snai.
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The prediction
Brazil’s last victory over Argentina dates back to 2019, considering both official matches and friendlies. Since then, the Albiceleste have always avoided defeat against their eternal rivals: four very tight matches, in which no more than one goal was scored. This trend could be reversed at the Monumental: it would not be a surprise if Argentina, close to qualification and struggling with many absences, failed to keep a clean sheet against the Seleçao, who may have even more motivation than the world champions.
Probable line-ups for Argentina-Brazil
ARGENTINA (4-2-3-1): Emiliano Martínez; Molina, Romero, Otamendi, Tagliafico; Paredes, Mac Allister; Simeone, Enzo Fernandez, Thiago Almada; Julian Álvarez.
BRAZIL (4-2-3-1): Bento; Vanderson, Marquinhos, Leo Ortiz, Arana; Gerson, Bruno Guimaraes; Rodrygo, Raphinha, Vinicius Jr.; Joao Pedro.
POSSIBLE RESULT: 1-1