The Coppa Italia, now at the quarter finals, brings together the two big teams that have disappointed the most in the league so far. We’re talking about Milan and Roma: according to the current standings – the Milanese still have to play the match against Bologna – both would be out of Europe, occupying eighth and ninth place respectively. It is therefore forbidden to snub the national cup which – especially for the Giallorossi, currently in a worse position – could become a way to play in an international event and not be left out of everything.
The San Siro showdown – remember, in the event of a draw after 90 minutes, it will go straight to penalties – is a sort of remake of last spring’s Europa League double-header. They were also quarter-finals and the team that came out on top was the Capitolini, winning both the first and second leg.
The last league match between the two teams ended in a draw (1-1): a month ago Dybala replied to Reijnders, indirectly writing the word “end” on Paulo Fonseca’s brief experience on the Milan bench. His replacement, Sergio Conceiçao, made his debut with a victory in the Italian Super Cup in Saudi Arabia but, despite some tactical adjustments, his team is struggling to find consistency and unity. Last Sunday, Theo Hernandez and his teammates were already looking forward to their third win in a row in the Milan derby, before being caught at the last gasp by a goal from de Vrij (1-1) that choked the rossoneri fans’ scream of joy in their throats.
Milan turned upside down by the transfer market
The added time was decisive in Roma-Napoli too: Claudio Ranieri’s team confirmed their home advantage even against the very much favored Serie A leaders, drawing with Angelino in the 92nd minute (1-1).
In the transfer window that has just ended, Roma were certainly not one of the big players (director of football Ghisolfi limited himself to a few bets, such as former Salzburg player Gourna-Douath) while Milan came out somewhat revolutionized, after having disavowed several summer choices. Morata went to Galatasaray and Feyenoord’s Mexican striker Gimenez arrived, on the right in defense via Calabria and inside the experienced Walker. In the last few hours, the Rossoneri club also got their hands on Joao Felix, Bondo and Sottil, while Bennacer and Okafor left.
Some of them could already take a seat on the bench in the Coppa Italia match, but Conceiçao should in any case field a team similar to the one that faced Inter (Fofana will be there, disqualified against the Nerazzurri). Ranieri, on the other hand, will return to the standard lineup after the substantial turnover made with Napoli.
Odds comparison
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The prediction
In the round of 16, Milan and Roma beat two Serie B teams: the Rossoneri thrashed Sassuolo 6-1 while the Giallorossi had an easy time of it against Sampdoria (4-1). Looking at previous results, however, the most interesting data regards the goals: in 10 of the last 11 matches both teams have scored, with the exception of the first leg of the Europa League quarter-final played last April. This trend could continue, given the permeability of the Rossoneri defense and the difficulties that Ranieri’s men have on away turf. In short, the feeling is that Roma will give it their all and it’s not impossible that they might even manage to avoid defeat in regulation time, although Milan remain favorites to qualify.
The probable line-ups for Milan-Roma
MILAN (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Walker, Gabbia, Pavlovic, Hernandez; Fofana, Musah; Pulisic, Reijnders, Leao; Abraham.
ROMA (3-5-2): Svilar; Celik, Hummels, N’Dicka; Saelemaekers, Koné, Paredes, Pellegrini, Angelino; Dybala, Dovbyk.