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Lazio-Udinese prediction: statistics worry Baroni

by Mark

Two games won in the dying moments, two crucial victories that keep alive hopes of staying in the race for fourth place in the league and advancing to the quarter-finals of the Europa League. Marco Baroni’s Lazio certainly does not lack character, having conquered San Siro last Sunday with a 2-1 win over Milan thanks to a penalty converted by the indomitable Pedro in stoppage time, just minutes after conceding an equalizer despite having a man advantage.

It was also a match for the strong-hearted in Plzen: on Thursday in the Czech Republic, the Biancocelesti pulled off a real feat, scoring the winning goal (Isaksen) in stoppage time after being reduced to nine men following the sendings-off of Rovella and Gigot. The 2-1 win against Viktoria puts them in pole position to qualify, with Baroni’s men advancing to the next round even with a draw. Between the two European matches, however, there is the league game against Udinese, which is crucial to stay in the Champions League race. It is a match that hides many pitfalls, considering that the Friulians are unbeaten since January and are coming off three consecutive wins—without conceding a single goal—which have suddenly fueled European dreams. Yes, the Bianconeri, who have now reached 39 points and are safe from relegation, could even join the fight for seventh place if they can find some consistency, which in May will most likely mean a ticket to the next Conference League.

Lazio-Udinese: the latest news on the line-ups

No luck for Castellanos: Baroni will have to do without his center forward again, who will not return before the break. Tchaouna will play in attack, with the Biancocelesti coach asking Isaksen and Dia to go the extra mile, while Pedro and Zaccagni will take turns on the left. Lazzari and Marusic are vying for the right-back spot, while Gila and Romagnoli will form the central defensive pairing.

Odds comparison

Lazio are priced at 1.72 to win on Goldbet and Lottomatica and 1.73 on Snai. The ‘Goal’ market is priced at 1.77 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and 1.73 on Snai.

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Prediction

Udinese has performed well in recent matches against Lazio at the Olimpico: in addition to last March’s 2-1 victory, it should be remembered that the last time the capital side won against the Bianconeri in the league was in 2019. These statistics, combined with the Friulians’ current good form, suggest a more balanced match than expected, especially as Baroni’s team could be feeling the effects of their cup exertions. In any case, the Biancocelesti are slight favorites in a match in which both teams are likely to score.

Probable lineups for Lazio-Udinese

LAZIO (4-3-3): Provedel; Lazzari, Gila, Romagnoli, Nuno Tavares; Guendouzi, Rovella; Isaksen, Vecino, Zaccagni; Dia.
UDINESE (4-4-2): Padelli; Kristensen, Bijol, Solet, Kamara; Atta, Karlstrom, Lovric, Ekkelenkamp; Thauvin, Lucca.

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