Alavés vs Valencia Prediction and Analysis

When **Alavés** host **Valencia** in La Liga on 20 October 2025, the clash promises a fascinating duel between a home side rising in confidence and an opponent needing stability on the road. This preview unpacks the latest team news, head-to-head trends, underlying numbers, tactical edges and a reasoned forecast.

Latest Team News & Lineup Notes

Alavés enter this match under the direction of Eduardo “Chacho” Coudet. Ahead of this fixture, the club have good news: all players previously sidelined by injury—such as Calebe Gonçalves, Moussa Diarra, Toni Martínez and Mariano—are expected to be available, having resumed training. The only confirmed absence is **Garcés**, suspended for a year by FIFA over documentation issues. This near-full squad gives Coudet roster flexibility.

One player to watch: **Antonio Blanco**, the Alavés midfielder, continues to make his mark. He is among the team leaders in recoveries, aerial duels and interceptions, and is forming part of the backbone of Coudet’s setup.

Valencia, conversely, remain less stable in form. Their away performances have been inconsistent: they have lost three of their last four La Liga away games. The squad will likely stick to a trusted core to maintain structure on the road. Their attacking threat depends heavily on transition play and occasional bursts, rather than dominant possession phases.

Head-to-Head Comparison: Alavés vs Valencia

Across the historical record, Valencia hold a slight advantage over Alavés. In 30 direct confrontations, Valencia have won 13, Alavés 10, and seven matches have ended in draws. On average, matches between them yield around 2.37 goals per game. :contentReference[oaicite:0]{index=0}

From more recent meetings, Alavés defeated Valencia 1-0 in May 2025, marking a positive mark in their head-to-head ledger. :contentReference[oaicite:1]{index=1} Meanwhile, in their previous seasons’ clashes, many matches have been tight affairs, often decided by narrow margins. :contentReference[oaicite:2]{index=2}

That history suggests Valencia cannot take anything for granted, even as favorites on paper.

Form, League Standing & Key Statistics

According to Sofascore, going into this match Alavés sit 10th in La Liga, while Valencia are positioned 15th. :contentReference[oaicite:3]{index=3} That sees the hosts with relative breathing space compared to their opponent. Meanwhile, a match preview anticipates Alavés will be slightly favored at home, as Valencia’s away form has been troublesome. :contentReference[oaicite:4]{index=4}

Alavés have shown glimpses of home strength: in their recent four home matches, they secured two wins. Valencia’s away form, by contrast, has delivered three losses in their last four on the road. :contentReference[oaicite:5]{index=5}

In terms of goals, these encounters often produce more than 1.5 goals, reflecting openness in both sides’ approach over time. :contentReference[oaicite:6]{index=6} Valencia’s offense in recent seasons has been driven by moments of vertical thrust rather than sustained control — they generate relatively few chances but rely on clinical execution. :contentReference[oaicite:7]{index=7} Defensively, they have been vulnerable in transitions and on set pieces, areas Alavés may try to exploit.

Tactical Analysis: Styles, Matchups & Key Battles

Alavés, under Coudet, are likely to adopt a balanced structure: disciplined defensively, yet proactive when regaining possession. They may seek width, using fullbacks and wingers to stretch Valencia’s defensive flanks. Blanco’s presence in midfield should help in regaining control and launching attacks. The return of key personnel gives them flexibility in shape and rotation.

Valencia, by necessity, will aim to stay compact and efficient. They may drop into a mid-block, inviting Alavés forward and then seeking counter transitions. Their strength lies in sudden vertical passes and exploiting spaces when opposition defenses push high. Expect Valencia to avoid protracted possession battles and instead look for openings behind the lines.

The midfield duel is pivotal: if Alavés can dominate transitions and recycle possession quickly, they may unbalance Valencia. Conversely, Valencia’s ability to intercept passes and launch counters could punish overcommitment. On the wings, matchups between Alavés fullbacks and Valencia’s wide runners may determine crossing opportunities or cutbacks into danger zones.

Prediction & Forecast

This fixture leans toward a tight contest. Alavés’ home stability and improving personnel favor them edging control, while Valencia’s susceptibility on the road and reliance on transitions make them vulnerable.

My forecast: **Alavés 2–1 Valencia**. I expect a competitive game with home side pressure turning into a marginal advantage. Valencia will get chances, particularly on counters, but might concede in set-piece or be undone by small lapses.

Betting Tips & Odds Suggestions

– Both Teams to Score: Yes (likely given Valencia’s counter threat and Alavés’ forward intent)
– Over/Under 2.5 goals: Lean Over (a 3-goal match fits the pattern of openness)
– Match winner lean: Alavés to take it narrowly

Conclusion: Alavés vs Valencia Summary

The La Liga fixture between Alavés and Valencia sets up as a battle of home ambition versus away pragmatism. Alavés enter buoyed by returning fitness and a relatively stable platform, while Valencia must overcome their erratic road form and structural defensive vulnerabilities. The head-to-head record gives Valencia a slight edge historically, but current trends favor the hosts. A 2–1 win for Alavés seems a realistic outcome, although Valencia will remain dangerous throughout.