Two English, two Spanish, two German, one Italian, and one French. No, this isn’t the start of a joke, but the nationalities of the eight clubs that will be competing for a place in the Champions League semifinals in just under a month. The round of 16 has just ended and, as was the case in the play-offs, there were plenty of surprises. For example, Liverpool’s elimination caused quite a stir, as they had dominated the new League Phase, automatically becoming the main contender for the final victory.
Instead, Salah and his teammates came up against Luis Enrique’s PSG, who played better overall than the Reds in both legs, winning on penalties. The penalty shootout, however, once again rewarded reigning European champions Real Madrid: Carlo Ancelotti’s Blancos emerged victorious from a battle to the death with city rivals Atletico, who were denied by a VAR-disallowed penalty from Colchonero striker Julian Alvarez. The dream of a 16th title is therefore still alive for Real, who are still in contention on three fronts and will not be easily dethroned despite their frequent ups and downs.
Inter are the only Italian team left in the competition. The Nerazzurri had no trouble in seeing off Feyenoord, who knocked Milan out in the play-offs, but now they will have to prove they are a match for the rampant Bayern Munich, who made short work of fellow Germans Bayer Leverkusen, beating them twice in seven days.
Winner of the 2025 Champions League: Barcelona is Opta’s favorite
But how many chances does Simone Inzaghi’s team have of lifting the cup in the final in Munich? According to the verdict of the Opta Supercomputer, not many: Inter are fourth in this special ranking, with a 16.4% chance of winning what would be their fourth European Cup.
Surprisingly, Barcelona, PSG, and Arsenal are ahead of the Nerazzurri. The Blaugrana, who will face Borussia Dortmund in the quarter-finals, are the main favourites according to the ‘computer’, with 20.4%. Behind them is Luis Enrique’s PSG, who have relaunched their candidacy after taking the scalp of the steamroller Liverpool: the Parisians should not fail to reach the semi-finals against former coach Unai Emery’s outsiders Aston Villa. Then there is Arsenal, which the Supercomputer clearly considers the favorite in the doubleheader against Real Madrid, only fifth behind Inter, with 13.6% to repeat last year’s feat and be crowned European champions for the second year in a row. The Blancos have been snubbed spectacularly. Bayern Munich (9.7%), Aston Villa (2.8%) and Borussia Dortmund (1%) round out the rankings.