Liverpool, Arsenal, and Manchester City are the three main favorites to win the Premier League, and it probably didn’t take Opta’s supercomputer projections to come up with this prediction. However, let’s interpret the other data and try to understand which team could be the wild card and where the surprises could come from.
It is not yet certain whether the Premier League will once again have a fifth place valid for the Champions League: it will depend on the results of English clubs in Europe this year. The percentages reported by Opta’s calculations are therefore based on the assumption that a top-four finish is needed to qualify for the Champions League, with fifth place currently guaranteeing access to the Europa League.
Liverpool (72.8% chance of finishing in the top four), Arsenal (68.5%), Manchester City (62.0%) and Chelsea (40.4%) are the favorites to repeat their top four finishes, but there is also hope for other clubs.
Aston Villa, who were denied promotion on the last day of last season with a defeat at Manchester United, manage to finish in the top four in almost a third of simulations, with a percentage of 30.5%.
Newcastle, who are struggling to keep striker Alexander Isak, still have a good chance of returning to the Champions League, according to the supercomputer. The Magpies, despite being projected more often in sixth place, finish in the top four in 29.9% of simulations. Crystal Palace, fresh from an exhilarating end to the season with their historic FA Cup victory, have a 21.6% chance of achieving the feat, more than Brighton & Hove Albion (16.8%). Bournemouth (10.1%) and Nottingham Forest (8.9%) remain far from the top four, but their chances are significantly better than a year ago, when the supercomputer gave the Cherries just 0.6% and Forest less than 0.1%. Their excellent 2024-25 seasons have clearly improved their projections. Manchester United, with Ruben Amorim at the helm, qualifies for the Champions League in 6.7% of simulations, while Thomas Frank’s Tottenham does so in only 5.7%. These percentages mainly reflect last season’s disappointing performance.
Odds comparison
Chelsea to win the Premier League at the end of the season is priced at 8.00 on Goldbet and Lottomatica.
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