The new Champions League format has, in fact, “liberalized” the derbies starting from the round of 16 – in the past two teams affiliated to the same federation could only meet in the quarterfinals – and in addition to the Madrid derby, the “fratricidal” all-German clash between Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen has also come out of the last draws in Nyon an all-German match between Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen, who in the Bundesliga are also vying for the coveted Meisterschale (Championship Trophy), so to speak, given the Bavarians’ now wide lead.
The match between Bayern and Bayer, although not a derby in the strict sense of the word – nor even a historic rivalry – is in any case a match of undoubted appeal, since the two clubs that have alternated on the throne of Germany in the last two seasons are facing each other. After a disappointing season, Bayern Munich started again with Vincent Kompany, a young coach who grew up under Pep Guardiola, and is back to being the boss. In the league the Bavarians have an 8 point lead over second placed Leverkusen, boasting the best attack (72 goals scored) and the best defense. In the Champions League, however, Kane and his teammates have strangely struggled a bit. In the league phase they only finished 12th in the standings and in the playoff with the Scottish team Celtic they avoided extra time by a whisker (1-2 in Scotland and 1-1 in Bavaria), drawing at almost the last minute thanks to a goal by Davies. In short, a double confrontation that turned out to be more complicated than expected.
Leverkusen unbeaten in their last three games
Bayer Leverkusen, on the other hand, didn’t need the play-offs to reach the round of 16: with 16 points in eight games (5 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats) Xabi Alonso’s men finished sixth in the top division.
In the league, on the other hand, they are struggling to keep up with their next continental opponents. Yes, they haven’t lost since August, but the too many draws in the last six games – three in total, including the 0-0 with Bayern Munich at the BayArena – have been a blow to the comeback project. The Basque coach, however, is comforted by the three previous seasons: Bayern have never beaten the Aspirins, who managed to avoid defeat in the league (1-1 in the first leg and 0-0 in the second) but also to win the German Cup match last December which ended 1-0 to Leverkusen. More generally, going back, Werkself has not lost for six games against the Bavarians.
As for the line-ups, Kimmich and Upamecano are doubtful for Bayern Munich, while on the other hand Alonso has the entire squad available. The only one who risks missing the first leg is Tapsoba.
Odds comparison
The draw is quoted at 3.85 on Goldbet, Lottomatica and Snai. The “Under 3.5” sign is quoted at 1.40 on Goldbet, Lottomatica and Snai.
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The prediction
The three previous seasons tell us that Xabi Alonso knows how to make things difficult for Bayern Munich, who didn’t even have a shot on goal in the match on February 15th. The Bavarians obviously have something extra but we expect another one of those boring matches we’ve seen in the Bundesliga: a draw is not to be excluded in a match in which the total number of goals could be less than 4.
The probable line-ups for Bayern Munich-Bayer Leverkusen
BAYERN MUNICH (4-2-3-1): Neuer; Laimer, Upamecano, Kim, Davies; Kimmich, Goretzka; Olise, Musiala, Coman; Kane.
BAYER LEVERKUSEN (3-4-3): Hradecky; Mukiele, Tah, Hincapie; Frimpong, Aleix Garcia, Xhaka, Grimaldo; Tella, Schick, Wirtz.