Over 70% possession, 1.78 expected xG against Liverpool’s 0.27, 27 total shots against just 2 for the Reds. These are the most important statistics from the first leg between PSG and Arne Slot’s men: but, despite the fact that a week ago at the Parc des Princes there was essentially only one team on the pitch, it was Salah and his teammates who took home a platinum victory from Paris, scoring the decisive goal (0-1) three minutes from time with Elliott thanks to the only shot on target in the entire 90 minutes.
It was a real blow for Luis Enrique, who had prepared perfectly for the match, putting the undisputed Premier League leaders and Champions League group stage winners under pressure and forcing Reds goalkeeper Alisson to produce the best performance of his career. Now the Parisians need a miracle: to conquer a heated stadium like Anfield and do so with at least a two-goal margin to avoid extra time. Slot, on the other hand, would reach the quarter-finals even with a draw: the Dutch coach was also able to rotate several players over the weekend to keep them fresh for the cup.
Both have the league title in their grasp
The Premier League title seems to be a formality for the Reds, who won 3-1 at bottom club Southampton at the weekend and are now 15 points ahead of second-placed Arsenal, who are a game behind Liverpool after being held to a draw at Old Trafford by Manchester United.
It’s also practically over in Ligue 1, where PSG has a 16-point lead over Marseille and is preparing to triumph well ahead of schedule. At home, Luis Enrique’s team is a real steamroller (1-4 at Rennes at the weekend): 20 wins, 5 draws and no defeats so far for the reigning French champions, who have scored an impressive 70 goals in 25 games. However, elimination from the Champions League would be a huge blow for the Spanish coach and his project. The Parisian coach has a full squad at his disposal, having rested almost all of his regular starters in Ligue 1. Slot, on the other hand, will have to do without Gakpo, Bradley, and Gomez. Elliott could start in place of Szoboszlai.
Odds comparison
The “Goal” bet is priced at 1.45 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and at 1.47 on Snai. The “Over 2.5” bet is also priced at 1.48 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and at 1.53 on Snai.
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The prediction
It will be very difficult for PSG to replicate last week’s performance at Anfield, where the Reds have lost only once this season (last September against Nottingham Forest in the league), but Luis Enrique’s men, despite failing to break through their wall, have nevertheless shown that they have the quality to hurt the Premier League leaders. For this very reason, compared to the first leg, we can expect a little more excitement, with both teams likely to find the back of the net: a draw would be tantamount to a death sentence for the visitors.
Probable lineups for Liverpool-PSG
LIVERPOOL (4-2-3-1): Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Konaté, van Dijk, Robertson; Mac Allister, Gravenberch; Salah, Szoboszlai, Luis Diaz; Diogo Jota.
PSG (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Nuno Mendes; Fabian Ruiz, Vitinha, Joao Neves; Kvaratskhelia, Dembélé, Barcola.