Over 70% possession, expected xG of 1.78 against the 0.27 recorded by Liverpool, 27 total shots against just 2 for the Reds. These are the most important statistics of the first leg between PSG and Arne Slot’s men: but, despite the fact that a week ago at the Parc des Princes there was essentially only one team on the pitch, Salah and his teammates were able to take a decisive victory (0-1) from Paris with Elliott scoring the only goal of the match with just three minutes remaining.
A real slap in the face for Luis Enrique, who had prepared the game to perfection, putting the undisputed leaders of the Premier League, and Champions League League Phase dominators, under pressure, and forcing the Reds’ goalkeeper Alisson to give the best performance of his career. Now the Parisians need a minor miracle: to win in a very heated stadium like Anfield and do it by at least two goals to avoid extra time. Slot, on the other hand, would reach the quarterfinals even with a draw: the Dutch coach, by the way, was also able to rotate several players over the weekend to have them fresh for the cup.
Both have the championship in the bag
Victory in the Premier League now seems to be a formality for the Reds, who won at the weekend against tailenders Southampton (3-1) and are 15 points ahead of second-placed Arsenal – with one game in hand over Liverpool – who were stopped at Old Trafford by Manchester United.
The games are practically over in Ligue 1 too, where PSG can count on a 16-point advantage over Marseille and is preparing to triumph well in advance. At home Luis Enrique’s team is a real steamroller (1-4 at Rennes at the weekend): 20 wins, 5 draws and no losses so far for the reigning French champions, who have scored an impressive 70 goals in 25 games. However, being eliminated from the Champions League would be a huge blow for the Spanish coach and his project. All available for the Parisian coach, who rested almost all of his starters in Ligue 1. Slot, on the other hand, will have to do without Gakpo, Bradley and Gomez. Elliott could start from the 1st minute in place of Szoboszlai.
Odds comparison
The “Goal” sign is quoted at 1.45 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and at 1.47 on Snai. The “Over 2.5” sign is also quoted at 1.48 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and at 1.53 on Snai.
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The prediction
It will be very difficult for PSG to repeat their performance of a week ago at Anfield, where the Reds have only lost once this season (last September against Nottingham Forest in the league), but Luis Enrique’s men, although unable to break down their wall, still showed they have the quality to hurt the Premier League leaders. Precisely for this reason, compared to the first match, it’s reasonable to expect a few more goals, with both teams very likely to find the back of the net: in fact, a draw for the visitors would be tantamount to a defeat.
The probable line-ups for Liverpool-PSG
LIVERPOOL (4-2-3-1): Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Konaté, van Dijk, Robertson; Mac Allister, Gravenberch; Salah, Szoboszlai, Luis Diaz; Diogo Jota.
PSG (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Nuno Mendes; Fabian Ruiz, Vitinha, Joao Neves; Kvaratskhelia, Dembélé, Barcola.