Everyone was expecting a rematch of the 2023 Champions League final between Inter and Manchester City. Instead, two non-European clubs advanced to the next round: Fluminense, led by former Roma star Renato Portaluppi, and the ambitious Al-Hilal, coached by Simone Inzaghi since early June. Brazil on one side and Saudi Arabia on the other. This was in spite of those who thought that teams from other continents would have no chance once the group stage was over.
Fluminense surprisingly knocked Inter out in the round of 16. They did so by playing a great game, exploiting the Nerazzurri’s difficulties from start to finish, at the dawn of a new cycle and appearing worn out from an athletic standpoint. The Tricolor shone again when not in possession, as they had already done in the group stage against Borussia Dortmund: they also muzzled Inter’s attack in a match decided by goals from Cano and Hercules (0-2), scored in the third minute of the first half and in stoppage time.
Fluminense showed overall that they were hungrier than Lautaro Martinez and his teammates and in better physical shape, despite the high average age of their squad. The 2023 Copa Libertadores champions now have a real chance of reaching the semi-finals – a goal that seemed impossible at the start of the tournament – in a part of the draw where Chelsea are the only big European club left.
Inzaghi’s immediate impact
This is also a huge opportunity for Al-Hilal: the Saudis’ achievement, if you will, was even greater and even more difficult to predict.
The impact of the former Inter coach has been incredible, as he has managed to instill his ideas in a team coming off a difficult season in just a few days. The Riyadh club, on the other hand, has left everyone speechless, eliminating one of the favorites and one of the best teams in the group stage.
Al-Hilal, who had already looked strong in their previous three games—finishing second behind Real Madrid and ahead of Salzburg and Pachuca—were able to strike at the right moment against City’s less-than-impregnable defense, scoring four times in a thrilling 4-3 victory that went into extra time. The two Brazilians Malcom and Marcos Leonardo – the latter scoring twice – and former Napoli player Koulibaly were the stars of the show. Overall, the whole team played well, taking full advantage of the structural flaws in Pep Guardiola’s side, which Inzaghi had also troubled in the aforementioned 2023 final. The switch to a three-man defense, the Piacenza-born coach’s trademark, immediately paid dividends.
Odds comparison
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The prediction
There are no previous encounters between the two teams, who will face each other for the first time in Orlando. Simone Inzaghi’s men are slight favorites. Overall, they have more quality than Fluminense and are coming off the most important victory in their history against one of the best clubs in the Premier League. However, Al-Hilal will be forced to set up a completely different game from the one against City: the Brazilians will most likely leave the ball in the Saudis’ hands, focusing on defensive organization and counterattacks.
It cannot be ruled out that there will be fewer than three goals in total this time around.
FLUMINENSE (3-4-1-2): Fabio; Ignacio, Thiago Silva, Freytes; Xavier, Hercules, Bernal, Fuentes; Nonato; Arias, Cano.
AL-HILAL (5-4-1): Bono; Joao Cancelo, Koulibaly, Ruben Neves, Renan Lodi, Al-Harbi; Malcom, Milinkovic-Savic, Kanno, N. Al-Dawsari; Marcos Leonardo.