France’s adventure in this edition of the Nations League did not get off to the best start. Didier Deschamps’ Les Bleus, who were eliminated in the semi-finals of the European Championship in Germany by the future champions Spain, got off to a shocking start at the Stade de France against Italy on the first day: the Azzurri’s 3-1 victory in Saint-Denis did not bode well, with the coach still at the center of criticism.
However, that remained the only defeat for the World Cup runners-up in Group 2 of League A: despite the coach experimenting with several young players and leaving Mbappé out of the last two squads, France won four of their remaining five games (the only draw was against Israel), winning the head-to-head with Italy and overtaking them in the standings on thethe last matchday, returning the “favor” to Luciano Spalletti’s team, which was defeated 3-1 at San Siro last November thanks to a brace from Rabiot and an own goal by Vicario. After finishing first in the group, the French will face Croatia in the quarterfinals, which finished second in Group 1 behind the unbeatable Portugal. The team led by Zlatko Dalic—and driven by a decisive Modric—won only two of six games but managed to edge out Scotland in a photo finish. The draw with Portugal (already assured of first place) in the last round was crucial.
Dalic focuses on the “old guard”
The winner of this doubleheader will face either the Netherlands or Spain in the semifinals in June, with those two set to battle it out in the other quarterfinal.
Dalic is obviously focusing on the so-called “old guard.” Captain Modric will obviously be there against France, just a few appearances away from reaching 200 caps for his country, but Perisic, Pasalic, Kramaric, and Kovacic will also feature. France, on the other hand, will see the return of Mbappé, who has been on fire in recent games with Real Madrid, but Deschamps has decided to put his faith in the PSG contingent, which is doing very well both at home and in Europe. In addition to Barcola, Dembélé, and Zaïre-Emery, Doué is also among those called up, while Inter’s Thuram left the training camp after the first day due to an injury sustained during the match against Atalanta.
Odds comparison
France’s victory is priced at 2.05 on Goldbet, Lottomatica, and Snai. A goal is priced at 1.72 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and 1.70 on Snai.
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The prediction
After the famous 2018 World Cup final, won 4-2 by France in Moscow, these two teams have only faced each other in the Nations League, again in the group stage. The record stands at two wins for France, one draw, and one win for Croatia. Croatia has never lost in front of its home crowd in the group stage and, thanks to its experience, could give France a run for its money, at least in the first leg, as France can count on a squad packed with champions as usual. However, given the sparkling form of Mbappé and Dembélé, we cannot go against Les Bleus, who have won all their away games so far and will almost certainly emerge unscathed from the first round in Split. Both teams should manage to score at least one goal.
Probable line-ups for Croatia-France
CROATIA (3-4-3): Livakovic; Sutalo, Caleta-Car, Gvardiol; Perisic, Modric, Kovacic, Sosa; Kramaric, Budimir, Baturina.
FRANCE (4-3-3): Maignan; Koundé, Upamecano, Saliba, Theo Hernandez; Rabiot, Tchouameni, Camavinga; Dembélé, Mbappé, Barcola.
POSSIBLE RESULT: 1-2