Fiorentina is going in search of what would be its third consecutive Conference League final, a cup that in the last two seasons has always escaped the Viola at the most important moment, defeated in the final first by West Ham (2023) and then by Olympiacos (2024). However, the road to Wrocław, the site of the 2025 final, is still a long way off: yes, it’s true, the fearsome Chelsea are on the other side of the draw – Fiorentina can only face them in the final – but in a hypothetical semi-final, Fiorentina, once they have overcome the obstacle of Celje, would in all likelihood face Betis, currently one of the most in-form teams in Spanish soccer.
So, it’s on to the Slovenians. By reaching the quarter finals, they have written a little piece of history, becoming the first club from their federation to make it into the top eight of a continental competition.
Not bad for a team that became Slovenian champions for the first time in the 2019-20 season and repeated the feat exactly one year ago, a triumph that allowed them to take part in the Champions League qualifiers (Celje was then relegated to the Conference after also “passing through” the Europa League). Led by Spanish coach Albert Riera – who also played for Udinese – they finished 21st in their group, qualifying for the playoffs with just 7 points. In the knockout phase, however, they were underdogs but managed to beat APOEL Nicosia first and then Lugano, who they beat on penalties at the end of a crazy match that ended 5-4 for the Ticinese (the first leg had ended 1-0 for the Slovenians).
All plain sailing for Fiorentina?
In their own league, on the other hand, Celje are only fourth, now light years away from Olimpija Ljubljana: they are fighting for third place with two other teams, Koper and Bravo.
On paper, therefore, it’s a double challenge that shouldn’t cause Fiorentina too much trouble. The Viola, however, can’t rest on their laurels, since in this strange season they’ve also suffered defeats against opponents that were well within their reach. In the round of 16, for example, Palladino’s men needed a great comeback to get the better of Panathinaikos, beaten 3-1 in Florence after having lost the first leg in Athens (3-2) in a dramatic fashion. It seems that the coach has regained his composure after the victory against the Greeks: since then, two very important victories have been achieved against Juventus and Atalanta in the league, a positive series that continued with the 2-2 draw at San Siro against Milan last Saturday, a result that allows Fiorentina to remain in the group of teams that aspire to the top European leagues.
Palladino should definitely give someone a rest, giving space to those who didn’t play much against Milan (Zaniolo?). Gosens will certainly not be there, out for a week with a knee problem. In Celje, the man to fear is Lithuanian center forward Kucys, who has scored 15 goals in the league and Conference League.
Odds comparison
Fiorentina’s win is quoted at 1.42 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and at 1.40 on Snai. The “Over 2.5” sign is quoted at 1.60 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and at 1.55 on Snai.
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The prediction
A problem away from home for Fiorentina, who in the new year have only beaten Lazio away from the “Franchi”. In this case, however, the gap is so wide that it’s hard not to expect a win for the Viola, especially after having rediscovered their lost confidence. We also expect a prolific match – the Slovenians had the worst defense among the teams that ranked among the top 24 in the maxi-group – taking into account that there have rarely been few goals in the matches involving the Viola in this tournament. Also keep an eye on the yellow cards: Celje’s coach Riera, in fact, got angry after discovering that his men had collected fewer than anyone else in the Slovenian league.
The probable line-ups for Celje-Fiorentina
CELJE (4-3-2-1): Ricardo Silva; Karnicnik, Vuklisevic, Bejger, Nieto; Svetlin, Dulca, Zabukovnik; Seslar, Delaurier-Chaubet; Kucys.
FIORENTINA (3-5-2): De Gea; Comuzzo, Pongracic, Ranieri; Dodò, Mandragora, Fagioli, Cataldi, Parisi; Gudmundsson, Kean.