Hopes of bringing the Champions League back to Italy, an event that hasn’t happened since 2010, are pinned exclusively on Inter, the only Serie A team left in the running. The Nerazzurri, who finished fourth in the single-round group stage, obtaining direct access to the round of sixteen, did not disappoint in the previous round, easily eliminating Feyenoord and returning, after two years, to the top 8 of the most important European competition.
The Dutch, Milan’s executioners in the play-offs, were unable to overturn the odds. Inter mortgaged their passage to the next round in Rotterdam (0-2) and in the return leg they were able to pace themselves, still beating the Biancorossi at San Siro. In the quarter finals, however, Simone Inzaghi’s men will have to raise their level to beat one of the main candidates for the final, Bayern Munich. A real litmus test for an Inter that is still in the running on all fronts and wants to win as many trophies as possible.
The Italian champions, like the other big teams in Europe, are suffering from too many commitments in too short a time: the two consecutive draws with Milan in the Coppa Italia (1-1) and especially the one with Parma in the league – last Saturday Inter in Emilia let in a comeback after taking a two-goal lead – show that they’re running out of steam. This is normal when you play so many games.
Bavarians decimated by injuries
Perhaps distracted by the Allianz Arena challenge, Lautaro Martinez and his teammates wasted a great opportunity to extend their lead over Napoli and consolidate their first place in the standings.
The Bavarians are also at the top of the Bundesliga but the margin between them and the second placed team, Bayer Leverkusen, is wider and more reassuring. Over the weekend Vincent Kompany’s team, who want to return to the throne of Germany at all costs, won 3-1 against Augsburg in the Bavarian derby, remaining 6 points ahead of the Aspirins. Bayern also had to face their compatriots in the Champions League: it seems a paradox, but the Bavarians suffered much more in the play-offs against Celtic than in the round of 16 against Bayer Leverkusen, against whom they scored 5 goals in total in the two legs, without conceding any.
In any case, Lady Luck seems to have turned her back on Kompany, who will have to deal with an injury-depleted squad in the first leg against Inter. In fact, against Augsburg, the jewel Musiala, one of the most talented players, was also injured and will probably miss the return leg as well.
In addition to him, Upamecano, Davies, Ito, Neuer and Pavlovic will also be out. The Belgian coach will therefore rely on the scoring prowess of Kane, who has scored 34 goals in the Bundesliga and Champions League. And Inzaghi? The Nerazzurri coach isn’t smiling either: Lautaro Martinez has recovered but Dumfries will not be in Munich and two important substitutes such as Taremi and Zielinski are not available either. Dimarco is on the bench.
Odds comparison
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The prediction
There have been 9 European matches between Bayern Munich and Inter: the record is 5 wins for the Bavarians, 3 for the Nerazzurri and one draw. The most famous, and the one most fondly remembered by the Biscione fans, is undoubtedly the final won in Madrid in 2010, the year of the infamous Triplete. Ironically, two of Inter’s victories came in Bavaria: none at the San Siro, where Bayern Munich have won 4 times. A warning in view of the return leg? There’s sure to be a great deal of balance at the Allianz Arena, even if the numerous heavy absences that the Germans have to deal with tip the scales in favor of Inzaghi’s team, who should at least avoid defeat in a match with at least one goal each.
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The probable lineups for Bayern Munich-Inter
BAYERN MUNICH (4-2-3-1): Urbig; Laimer, Dier, Kim, Stanisic; Kimmich, Goretzka; Olise, Müller, Sané; Kane.
INTER (3-5-2): Sommer; Pavard, Acerbi, Bastoni; Darmian, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Carlos Augusto; Thuram, Lautaro Martinez.