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Barcelona vs Benfica prediction: the first leg confirmed it

by Michael

Barcelona were supposed to face Osasuna at the weekend, but the La Liga match was postponed due to some very sad news that hit the Blaugrana world: the club doctor, Carles Minarro Garcia, died suddenly just a few hours before kick-off. It was a real shock for Hansi Flick and his men, fresh from their important victory in the first leg of the Champions League round of 16 at Benfica, who they beat 1-0 at Da Luz despite being a man down from the 22nd minute of the first half (Cubarsì was sent off).

The hero of the match was Raphinha, who once again came to his coach’s rescue with yet another masterful play. The so-called “dirty work” was done by former Juventus goalkeeper Szczesny, who was once again decisive with his saves. In the second leg, Barça will therefore be able to play for two out of three results, knowing that even a draw will see them through to the quarter-finals. There was much regret for Benfica, who could have done much more with their numerical superiority, especially in front of goal: the Portuguese side had plenty of chances to hurt the Blaugrana defense (as confirmed by the total xG), but failed to convert any of them. Bruno Lage’s team will now have to pull off a feat in Catalonia, where they have never won in eight previous matches against Barcelona (the Portuguese side’s only victory came in 2021, in front of their home crowd).

Barça, Garcia replaces Cubarsí

Benfica, however, managed to turn the page immediately: in the Liga Portugal on Saturday, they overwhelmed Nacional 3-0, even without their regular starters, almost all of whom were rested for the match at Montjuic.

Lage thus responded to city rivals Sporting, who also won against Estoril: the title race is getting tighter and tighter in Portugal, with the two Lisbon clubs level on 56 points. The Biancorossi coach will be without the suspended Carreras in the cup, but that is not the only absence, as Di Maria, Bah, Manu Silva, and Bruma will also be missing. Barcelona, meanwhile, will have to do without Cubarsì, who is suspended after receiving a red card in the first leg: Eric Garcia will replace him.

Odds comparison

A Barcelona win is priced at 1.32 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and 1.35 on Snai. A draw is priced at 1.48 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and 1.50 on Snai.

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The prediction

It will undoubtedly be a special evening for Barcelona, with motivations beyond football also playing a role. The Blaugrana, still unbeaten in 2025, should be able to avoid defeat again against a Benfica side that seems to have missed the boat. This time, however, we believe that the Portuguese side can score at least one goal, with at least three in total.

Probable line-ups for Barcelona-Benfica

BARCELONA (4-2-3-1): Szczęsny; Koundé, R. Araujo, Iñigo Martínez, Balde; de Jong, Pedri; Yamal, Dani Olmo, Raphinha; Lewandowski.
BENFICA (4-3-3): Trubin; T. Araújo, António Silva, Otamendi, Dahl; Kökçü, Aursnes, Florentino; Aktürkoğlu, Pavlidis, Schjelderup.

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