This is undoubtedly the most interesting semi-final, as two of the pre-match favorites face each other. On one side is Athletic Bilbao, who know that this year they have a perhaps once-in-a-lifetime opportunity: to play the final in front of their home crowd. San Mamés will be the venue for the final of the 2024-25 Europa League. On the other side is Manchester United, who are ‘forced’ to lift this trophy to avoid being left out of everything. For the Red Devils, who have had a disastrous season in the league, it is the only way to return to the Champions League.
After all, Ruben Amorim’s team has already given up on the Premier League, and their latest results only confirm this. Bruno Fernandes and his teammates are only 14th, a long way from the last European spot. It has been a very troubled season for a club that, despite the millions spent in the transfer market, is struggling to return to the levels of the Ferguson era. Manchester United have not won a league game since mid-March: the only joy in that time was their sensational comeback in the quarter-final second leg against Lyon – one of the most exciting matches ever – with the Red Devils overturning the French side in the space of two minutes (5-4), when extra time was over and the semi-final seemed a pipe dream.
San Mamés is a bunker
Qualification never looked in doubt for Athletic, who easily disposed of Rangers at San Mamés (2-0) after dominating them in every aspect at Ibrox but failing to go beyond a draw (0-0).
The Basques, who knocked Roma out in the round of 16 (1-1 at the Olimpico, 3-1 in Bilbao), also did very well in the League Phase, collecting the most points along with Lazio (19) and suffering just one defeat between the group stage and the knockout rounds. Unlike Manchester United, however, Ernesto Valverde’s side are likely to qualify for the Champions League even if they don’t win the cup: Athletic are comfortably in the top four in La Liga, six points ahead of sixth place. In their last game, the red and whites bounced back immediately after their narrow defeat to Real Madrid, beating Las Palmas 1-0 with a goal from Inaki Williams. Valverde was even able to afford the luxury of rotating some players—Nico Williams came on in the second half—and he will have almost everyone available against United: the only doubts are Unai Gomez and Sancet. Amorim, on the other hand, has several absences to contend with: Lisandro Martinez, Evans, Diallo, Zirkzee, and De Ligt are all unavailable. Bruno Fernandes, Hojlund, and Garnacho will play in attack.
Odds comparison
Athletic Bilbao’s victory is priced at 2.05 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and 2.00 on Snai. The “Goal” sign is priced at 1.85 on Goldbet, Lottomatica, and Snai.
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Prediction
Athletic Bilbao and Manchester United have not faced each other since 2012 (also in the Europa League, but in the round of 16) and the Basque side have the upper hand, winning both legs in two goal-filled matches. The tie will probably be decided at Old Trafford, but Valverde’s men will try to take advantage of the San Mamés factor, where they have won six out of six in the Europa League, scoring 14 goals and conceding only two. We give a slight edge to Athletic in a match in which the Red Devils are also likely to score.
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Probable lineups for Athletic Bilbao-Manchester United
ATHLETIC BILBAO (4-2-3-1): Agirrezabala; De Marcos, Vivian, Yeray, Berchiche; Jauregizar, Ruiz de Galarreta; I. Williams, Sannadi, N. Williams; Guruzeta.
MANCHESTER UNITED (3-4-3): Onana; Yoro, Maguire, Mazraoui; Mainoo, Mount, Ugarte, Dorgu; Bruno Fernandes, Höljund, Garnacho.
POSSIBLE RESULT: 2-1