Milan-Napoli is a Champions League quarter-final first leg match to be played on Wednesday at 21:00: TV, formations, predictions
The possibility of Euroderby coming out on top in the last draw in Nyon was very high with no less than three Italian teams in the urn, as has not happened since the 2005-06 season. Therefore, it will be Milan and Napoli’s turn to vie for a place in the semi-finals of the Champions League, the two about to take over the throne of Italy. On one side the reigning champions Rossoneri, on the other the Azzurri, now close to sewing the tricolour on their chests after 33 years.
But in this vibrant double-header that will be staged in less than a week between two iconic stadiums such as the San Siro and the ‘Maradona’, neither the coat of arms – AC Milan boast a unique European palmares, while Napoli are appearing in a Champions League quarter-final for the first time in their history – nor the current Serie A standings, where Luciano Spalletti’s men have 22 points more than Stefano Pioli’s. This means that there is no clear favourite, despite Napoli’s season being decidedly more positive than that of the Diavolo. And the most recent league clash, played just ten days ago, could not have explained it better. For one night, AC Milan once again donned the suit of last year and, with a screaming performance, gave the Azzurri the most severe lesson of the season so far: a 0-4 without appeal, completely unexpected given that on the pitch was a team that had barely lost three matches since August. It was a heavy defeat that could weigh on the minds of the partenopei, who in Milan will once again be without a totemic figure like Osimhen.
We start from scratch
In any case, it would be a mistake to get too influenced by that match: the feeling is that it will be two very open matches, with Napoli slightly ahead but who cannot afford to lower their pace or underestimate the Rossoneri too much.
Pioli and Spalletti
The night at the ‘Maradona’ simply reduced the distance between the two teams, which had appeared much more pronounced in the draw. Milan, on balance, have only brought home one victory in the last month and a half, that in Naples. That, together with the passage of the round in the Champions League with Tottenham – 1-0 at the San Siro and 0-0 in London – are the only satisfactions of this 2023 characterised by a worrying discontinuity. An example is the match against Empoli last Friday, with the reigning Italian champions unable to offer a performance even remotely similar to that of seven days earlier. A dull 0-0 that did not allow Pioli to make any significant progress in the standings. But which nevertheless keeps Milan in fourth position, within a fight that is more open than ever. The Emilian coach applauds the second clean sheet in a row, but it is also true that the attack this time fired blanks. Neither did Napoli shine last weekend, however, obtaining a narrow victory in Lecce (1-2) that brings the Azzurri closer to the Scudetto objective, now in the safe.
Spalletti rebuked those who had cheered at the time of the draw, considering AC Milan to be an affordable team. The Tuscan coach has a point, but at the same time the record stands out. Napoli are unbeaten in four matches at the San Siro, winning three of them, including last September (1-2). Looking at the statistics, however, one realises that Euroderbies are good for AC Milan, who have never been beaten by an Italian side in the Champions League.
Milan-Napoli: the latest line-up news
Pioli, right from the league match against Napoli, has once again cleared customs with the 4-2-3-1, shelving the experiment of the three-man defence that had initially ensured a certain stability. The Parma-born coach is expected to re-propose the same eleven that took the Neapolitans by storm, with Krunic in the midfield with Tonali and Bennacer as a trequartista, with the clear objective of shielding Lobotka, the fulcrum of Napoli’s game. The only doubt is in defence, where Kjaer seems favoured over Thiaw.
In Napoli, Raspadori is likely to take Osimhen’s place. It will be a forced choice for Spalletti, who meanwhile must also do without Simeone, out for the whole month of April due to a hamstring strain. Raspadori himself is not at his best, and has trained separately in recent days, but the coach will ask him to grit his teeth. Another solution, tried out in training, is to deploy Elmas in the centre of the trident. Lozano is favoured over Politano, on the defensive left flank Olivera will win out over Mario Rui.
The prediction
The Champions League has exalted both AC Milan and Napoli so far. The Rossoneri lost only two games in the group stage to Chelsea, while the Azzurri have literally dominated their group with 20 goals in six matches and in the round of 16 they scrambled Eintracht Frankfurt without conceding a single goal. Osimhen’s absence and the 0-4 loss ten days ago in any case make the double-header less of a foregone conclusion, with the Rossoneri almost obliged to avoid defeat at the San Siro. As for the first leg – and even the bookmakers themselves are convinced of this – it is highly likely that both will score on at least one occasion. We expect an enterprising Milan side, who have learned the Azzurri’s weaknesses and look capable of getting a positive result.
The probable formations of Milan-Napoli
- MILAN (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Calabria, Kjaer, Tomori, Hernandez; Tonali, Krunic; Brahim Diaz, Bennacer, Leao; Giroud.
- NAPOLI (4-3-3): Meret; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Kim, Olivera; Zambo Anguissa, Lobotka, Zielinski; Lozano, Raspadori, Kvaratskhelia.
POSSIBLE RESULT: 1-1
