Match Preview

FC St. Pauli welcome 1. FC Union Berlin to the atmospheric Millerntor-Stadion on Sunday, 23 November 2025 in a high-pressure Bundesliga Matchday 11 clash. Kick-off is at 16:30 UTC (17:30 local time in Hamburg).

For newly promoted St. Pauli, the first months back in the top flight have been a brutal reality check. They come into this round sitting 16th with just 7 points, right in the relegation play-off zone. A run of defeats, including a painful 3–0 home loss to Hoffenheim and a 2–0 reverse against Dortmund earlier in the season, has exposed defensive frailties and a lack of cutting edge in the final third despite plenty of endeavour.

Union Berlin arrive in Hamburg in a slightly safer but still fragile position. They currently occupy around 11th place with 12 points, part of a crowded mid-table pack. After the turbulence of last season – long losing streaks, a slide down the table and a coaching change – Union are still trying to rediscover the compact, ruthless identity that once made them one of the toughest sides to face in Germany.

Tactically, St. Pauli will lean heavily on what Millerntor is famous for: ultra-high energy, aggressive pressing and quick vertical transitions once the ball is won. Expect a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 hybrid shape, with the wide players and full-backs key to pinning Union back and feeding a central striker early.

Union, under Steffen Baumgart, are likely to prioritise structure first. They press selectively rather than constantly, aiming to stay compact in a 4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3 block before breaking through pace in wide areas and set pieces. With goals still not flowing freely, they may be more pragmatic than in previous years, focusing on avoiding defeat first and foremost.

Given St. Pauli’s precarious position and Union’s desire to avoid being dragged into a relegation dogfight, this has all the ingredients of a classic “six-pointer” at a sold-out, noisy Millerntor.

Match Information

The match is part of Sunday’s Bundesliga programme and is widely highlighted as one of the key fixtures of the weekend given the stakes near the bottom half of the table.

St. Pauli vs Union Berlin Odds (1X2)

Bookmakers and prediction models see this as a finely balanced contest, with St. Pauli very slight favourites due to home advantage, but Union Berlin priced not far behind and the draw sitting in the middle.

Total-goals markets usually set the main line at Over/Under 2.5 goals. Because both teams have struggled for goals at times and the stakes are high, there is a slight tilt towards the Under, although historically this fixture has often produced plenty of scoring chances.

*Odds ranges are illustrative based on current market snapshots and may change before kick-off. Always confirm live prices with your chosen bookmaker.

Key Stats & Head-to-Head Snapshot

• Table picture: St. Pauli sit 16th with 7 points from their first 10 games; Union Berlin are 11th with 12 points, giving them a small but important cushion over the drop zone.
• St. Pauli recent form: The Kiezkicker come into this match after several league defeats, including a 3–0 home loss to Hoffenheim and a 2–0 home defeat to Dortmund earlier in 2025. They have often started brightly but faded in the second half.
• Union recent form: Union’s longer-term record over the past year includes lengthy winless runs that cost a previous coach his job. Under Baumgart, performances have improved in patches, but defensive organisation and chance creation are still not at the level that took them into Europe a few seasons ago.
• Head-to-head history: Across their last 20–28 meetings in league and cup, Union Berlin hold the edge, with roughly 14 wins to 8 for St. Pauli and 6 draws depending on the data set.
• Goals profile: The average goals per game between these sides is close to 2.9 per match. Around 75% of recent H2H games have gone Over 1.5 total goals, about 65% Over 2.5, and just over half have seen both teams score.
• Recent meetings: In January 2025, St. Pauli recorded a notable 3–0 home win over Union, but Union have also posted several victories of their own in Berlin in recent seasons, including tight league and cup wins.

St. Pauli vs Union Berlin Betting Tips

1X2 Market

With markets and statistics split, a cautious stance in the 1X2 market is Union Berlin Draw No Bet. St. Pauli’s home support and intensity at Millerntor make them dangerous, but Union have slightly more Bundesliga experience and a squad that, on paper, should be capable of getting a result. The DNB option covers a draw by refunding your stake while still backing Union’s quality.

If you favour the “Millerntor factor” and believe the crowd can drag the hosts over the line, St. Pauli to win (1) at the available price is a valid, higher-risk alternative.

Goals Market (Over/Under)

There’s a clash between history and current form: head-to-head numbers point towards goals, but both teams have had long spells this season where they struggle to create clear chances. A sensible compromise is Under 3.0 goals (Asian line) – you win if there are 0–2 goals and get your stake back if the match finishes with exactly three.

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Roughly 55% of recent H2H meetings have seen both teams score, making BTTS – Yes a reasonable lean. St. Pauli’s high press usually generates opportunities at home, while Union remain dangerous in transition and on set pieces even when their overall play is uneven. For more aggressive bettors, combining BTTS & Over 2.5 goals offers a higher-odds angle.

Handicap Options

If you lean towards Union but still respect the Millerntor factor, Union +0.25 or Union +0.5 on the Asian handicap provide insurance against a narrow home win. Conversely, if you see St. Pauli feeding off the home crowd, St. Pauli -0.25 gives a better price than the simple moneyline and refunds half your stake in the event of a draw.

All betting involves risk. Set clear limits, compare odds between bookmakers and never stake more than you can afford to lose. This preview is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Prediction

Correct Score Prediction: St. Pauli 1–1 Union Berlin

Balancing St. Pauli’s desperate need for points and ferocious home backing with Union Berlin’s slightly higher squad quality and experience, a tight 1–1 draw emerges as a very plausible outcome. Both sides will be wary of defeat, which could lead to spells of caution and a game ultimately decided by fine margins.

Best basic angle: Union Berlin Draw No Bet, or a small-stake play on the draw in the 1X2 market.
Goals angle: Under 3.0 total goals (Asian), with BTTS – Yes as a secondary option.
Long-shot angle: Correct score 1–1.

Always check confirmed line-ups, late injury news and weather conditions before placing any bets, as missing key defenders or forwards can quickly change the tactical balance and value in specific markets.