This year’s Coppa Italia offers an unprecedented final between two teams that have never faced each other in the final of the national competition. And, above all, they have not lifted this cup for a very long time. Milan came close twice in the last decade (2016 and 2018), but on both occasions the Rossoneri failed to overturn the odds against Allegri’s voracious Juventus side. The Diavolo’s last triumph dates back to 2003, the same year they won the Champions League in Manchester against Juve.
To find Bologna’s last triumph, however, we have to dig deep into the archives: for the Felsinei, the final in Rome will undoubtedly be a historic moment, as they will return to experience similar emotions after 51 years (in the 1973-74 edition, the Rossoblù won the final, also played in Rome, against Palermo, achieving their second success in the competition). Bologna coach Vincenzo Italiano is no stranger to finals, having already faced three in the last two seasons at the helm of Fiorentina, between the Coppa Italia and the Conference League. All of them were lost.
The Sicilian-born coach will try to reverse this trend at the Olimpico, knowing that whatever the outcome of the match, his team’s season will still be considered a success. Arriving in the Emilian capital amid general skepticism and with a mountain to climb – doing better than his predecessor Motta seemed almost impossible in light of the summer transfers – Italiano has even managed to improve this Bologna side in several respects.
The importance of this cup
In their first Champions League adventure, the Felsinei did not make it past the group stage but never disappointed. In the league, they are still in contention for a place in Europe despite slowing down a little in recent games (two draws and a defeat), and in the Coppa Italia, they have made their way through by eliminating Monza, Atalanta, and Empoli.
For Milan, on the other hand, the Coppa Italia has a different meaning. The Rossoneri are almost “obliged” to win it to avoid the risk of being left out of everything next year. Sergio Conceiçao’s team has had a disappointing season and, with two games to go, Theo Hernandez and his teammates find themselves eighth, four points behind the Champions League, which was considered the minimum objective. If Milan fail to finish in the top seven, the Coppa Italia would guarantee them a place in the Europa League. The same goes for Bologna, who, after Saturday’s 3-1 defeat at San Siro against the Rossoneri, slipped to seventh place, two points behind the Diavolo. Conceiçao will therefore attempt to add another domestic cup to his Italian trophy cabinet after winning the Super Cup in Saudi Arabia in January in order to earn a difficult contract renewal.
Conceiçao’s certainties and Italiano’s doubts
The Rossoneri’s journey in the Coppa Italia has been more tortuous than Bologna’s: in the quarterfinals and semifinals, Milan had to eliminate Claudio Ranieri’s Roma and then their cousins Inter, beating them 4-1 on aggregate in the two-legged tie. The Milanese side arrive at the Olimpico in good shape: they have won all of their last four games, finding consistency and giving the impression of having gained greater confidence.
Conceiçao will have no selection problems against Bologna. The Portuguese coach will stick with his tried and tested three-man defense of Tomori, Gabbia, and Pavlovic, while Pulisic and Leao will play on either side of Jovic, who is favored over Mexican Gimenez, who is likely to come on during the game. Holm and Ndoye are doubtful for Bologna: Italiano will put his faith in Calabria or De Silvestri in defense, while Cambiaghi should replace the Swiss player. Freuler and Ferguson will play in midfield, with the irreplaceable Orsolini, Bologna’s star player this season with 13 goals in Serie A, on the right wing. Castro and Dallinga are vying for a place in attack.
Odds comparison
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Prediction
Milan are in better shape going into this final, as demonstrated by their 3-1 win over Bologna in the league last Saturday. Since April, Italiano’s team has dropped off a bit, with their only wins coming against Empoli in the Coppa Italia and Inter in Serie A. The fact that they are less accustomed to playing games like this is a significant disadvantage for Bologna, who nevertheless play great football and will certainly have their chances. Milan are slight favorites in what promises to be an eventful final, as was the case in the league (2-1 for Bologna in Emilia and 3-1 at San Siro).
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Probable lineups for Milan-Bologna
MILAN (3-5-2): Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Jimenez, Fofana, Reijnders, Theo Hernandez; Pulisic, Leao, Jovic.
BOLOGNA (3-4-3): Skorupski; Calabria, Beukema, Lucumi, Miranda; Freuler, Ferguson; Orsolini, Odgaard, Ndoye; Dallinga.