Match Preview

1. FSV Mainz 05 welcome TSG Hoffenheim to the MEWA Arena on Friday, 21 November 2025 for a crucial Bundesliga Matchday 11 encounter. With Mainz battling at the wrong end of the table and Hoffenheim targeting European spots, this fixture already feels like a “six-pointer” for both sides. 

The hosts come into this round sitting 17th in the Bundesliga with just 5 points from their opening matches – a run that has put them firmly in the relegation battle. Defensive lapses, red cards and injuries to key players such as Benedict Hollerbach have all contributed to a difficult start under coach Bo Henriksen.

Hoffenheim, by contrast, are enjoying a far stronger campaign. They arrive in Mainz in the top half of the table, currently around 6th place with 19 points, and looking upwards rather than over their shoulders. Recent performances, including a 3–1 home win over Heidenheim that ended a long winless run in Sinsheim, suggest confidence is returning to Pellegrino Matarazzo’s side.

Tactically, Mainz are likely to lean on their usual aggressive pressing and compact 4-2-3-1 structure, looking to disrupt Hoffenheim’s build-up and feed off the energy of the home crowd. However, their high line and transitions have been a weakness this season. Hoffenheim, who like to build through the thirds and use the creativity of players such as Andrej Kramarić, will look to exploit those spaces between the lines and in behind the full-backs.

With Hoffenheim pushing for European qualification and Mainz badly needing points to climb out of the bottom two, this Friday-night match has all the ingredients of an intense, high-stakes Bundesliga contest.

Match Information

Live-score services confirm MEWA Arena as the venue, with kick-off scheduled for 19:30 UTC and the game forming part of the regular Bundesliga Friday-night slot.

Mainz vs Hoffenheim Odds (1X2)

Betting markets and prediction portals generally make Hoffenheim slight favourites despite playing away from home, reflecting their stronger league position and recent form, but Mainz’s need for points and home advantage keep the prices relatively tight.

Most bookmakers set the main goal line at Over/Under 2.5 goals, with a slight lean towards “Over” in line with both teams’ recent defensive records and historical meetings.

*Odds ranges are indicative based on current markets and prediction sites and may change before kick-off. Always check live prices with your preferred bookmaker.

Key Stats & Head-to-Head Snapshot

• Table positions: Ahead of Matchday 11, Mainz sit 17th in the Bundesliga standings with 5 points, while Hoffenheim are in 6th place with 19 points, firmly in the European-chasing pack.
• Recent form: Mainz have struggled for results and goals, losing several tight games and suffering a damaging home defeat to Köln, while Hoffenheim recently ended a long home drought with a 3–1 win over Heidenheim, having previously been thrashed 5–0 away by Bayern.
• H2H record: Historically this is a relatively even matchup: across 37 meetings, Mainz have won 15, Hoffenheim 12, and 10 have ended in draws, with a high average of 3.24 goals per game – underlining the potential for an open contest. 
• Last season’s meetings: The sides traded home wins in 2024/25 – Mainz winning 2–0 at MEWA Arena, while Hoffenheim responded with a 2–0 victory in Sinsheim in April 2025.
• Key absences: Mainz are still managing without forward Benedict Hollerbach after his muscle injury, while suspension issues have also disrupted their forward line in recent weeks – factors that may influence Bo Henriksen’s selection and approach.

Mainz vs Hoffenheim Betting Tips

1X2 Market

On current form and league position, the value angle leans towards Hoffenheim Draw No Bet. The visitors have been the more consistent side this season and boast greater attacking firepower, but Mainz’s home support and desperation for points make the straight away win slightly riskier than the market price suggests.

Goals Market (Over/Under)

With both teams averaging more than 3 total goals in direct meetings and recent defensive vulnerabilities on both sides, Over 2.5 goals is an attractive option for many bettors. A more cautious route could be Over 2.0/2.25 (Asian), which offers some protection if the game finishes with exactly two goals.

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Prediction models and tip sites widely expect chances at both ends, making BTTS – Yes a popular pick. Hoffenheim have the attacking quality to score in Mainz, while the hosts normally create enough opportunities at MEWA Arena to find the net at least once when chasing points.

Handicap Options

For those expecting Hoffenheim’s quality to tell over 90 minutes, small Asian handicaps such as Hoffenheim -0.25 can provide a better price than the basic away win while still returning half your stake in the event of a draw. Conversely, punters who fancy a reaction from Mainz might consider Mainz +0.5, which pays out if the home side avoid defeat.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always gamble responsibly, set clear limits and never stake more than you can afford to lose.

Prediction

Correct Score Prediction: Mainz 1–2 Hoffenheim

Considering Hoffenheim’s stronger overall form, Mainz’s defensive instability and the historically high-scoring nature of this fixture, a narrow 2–1 away win for Hoffenheim looks like a realistic scenario. The visitors have enough attacking variety to break down Mainz more than once, but the hosts’ urgency and home support should allow them to create chances of their own.

Best basic angle: Hoffenheim Draw No Bet, or straight away win (2) for those comfortable with more risk.
Goals angle: Over 2.5 total goals & BTTS – Yes.
Long-shot angle: Correct score 1–2 to Hoffenheim.

Always re-check line-ups, late injury news and weather conditions closer to kick-off, as they can significantly affect both the tactical approach and the value of any betting angles.