Despite a slight misstep against Monterrey in their debut, Inter managed to qualify for the round of 16 of the Club World Cup and finish at the top of their group with 7 points, remaining undefeated. On the last day of the group stage, Cristian Chivu’s men only needed a draw to advance to the next round, but against River Plate they delivered their most convincing performance (2-0) since the former Parma coach took over after Simone Inzaghi’s departure.
Despite only breaking the deadlock midway through the second half thanks to a first goal from talented youngster Pio Esposito, Inter asserted their superiority over the combative Argentines, who were finally sunk by Bastoni in stoppage time.
Inter seemed to have a clearer head after their unexpectedly hard-fought victory over Urawa Reds on matchday two. The team is not in peak physical condition, but some automatisms are beginning to emerge. The new signings have made a particularly positive impact: in addition to Pio Esposito, Sucic also stood out, playing a key role in the second half after coming on as a substitute. In short, the ghosts of Munich are beginning to fade: Chivu’s goal now is to at least secure a place in the quarter-finals, where they would face the winner of Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City – a sort of rematch of the 2023 Champions League final – and (ironically) Inzaghi’s Al-Hilal.
The Brazilians suffer little
In the round of 16, however, there is an obstacle that should not be underestimated: Fluminense, one of the four Brazilian teams that have won all their games, all reaching the knockout stages.
The Rio de Janeiro club, which became South American champions in 2023, finished second in Group F behind Borussia Dortmund, unbeaten like Inter.
They managed to hold off the prolific German attack (0-0) in their first game, beat South Korea’s Ulsan 4-2, and on the last day defended their second place from a possible assault by South Africa’s Mamelodi Sundowns, recording another clean sheet. Coach Renato Portaluppi is relying heavily on experience: 44-year-old Fabio is in goal, while the defense is led by former Milan, PSG, and Chelsea player Thiago Silva, the captain and undisputed leader. This is a very organized team defensively—as evidenced by the low number of shots and xG conceded—and is accustomed to giving very little away in its own half. Offensively, however, Fluminense has not been impressive: excluding the match against Ulsan, the Tricolor Carioca has disappointed when not in possession, creating few chances and scoring one more goal than expected (3.52 xG).
Odds comparison
The “Under 2.5” bet is priced at 1.68 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and at 1.65 on Snai. The “No Goals” bet is priced at 1.77 on Goldbet, Lottomatica, and Snai.
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The prediction
Inter are favourites, but Fluminense could prove to be a really tough nut to crack for the Nerazzurri due to their solid defence. It’s not easy to score against the Brazilians, who will try to stifle their opponents’ play by crowding the midfield and making it a physical game, with the aim of repeating their performance against Borussia. For this reason, we expect a largely deadlocked game, which Inter should eventually manage to break open. The total number of goals is likely to be less than three.
Probable line-ups for Inter vs. Fluminense
INTER (3-5-2): Sommer; de Vrij, Acerbi, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Asllani, Mkhitaryan, Carlos Augusto; Lautaro Martinez, Sebastiano Esposito.
FLUMINENSE (4-3-3): Fabio; Xavier, Thiago Silva, Freytes, Renè; Hercules, Martinelli; Arias, Nonato, Canobbio; Cano.