The most sensational result of the first round of Nations League quarter-finals. Croatia’s victory, two-nil over France, and a missed penalty by the hosts, overturns what seemed like a written prediction, with the French called upon to do something in the return match.
And yes, there is the scent of a challenge for a couple of reasons. Yes, it’s true that Croatia won, they went into the match with a two goal lead and therefore could play a very different tactical game, but it’s equally true that France came up against Livakovic a couple of times and missed at least a couple of great chances in front of the goal. Yes, perhaps the reaction that everyone was expecting was missing, but there will certainly be one in the return match on Sunday evening in Paris. And of course the Croatians know this too, they may be able to take the blow, but sooner or later they will fall. We also know that a victory by at least two goals would take the match to extra time. This could also be the case, so we say that the challenge is possible.
Also because the statistics that came out at the end of yesterday’s match tell us one thing: France had more shots on goal, and also more shots in the goalmouth. And even the Expected Goals show us that Deschamps’ national team is definitely unlucky. So yes, the feat is indeed possible.
Odds comparison
France’s victory is quoted at 1.45 on Goldbet, Lottomatica and 1.43 on Snai.
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The prediction
A feat. Possible and feasible. France will certainly win the match by at least two goals and therefore, in the worst case scenario, the game will continue into extra time. But watch out for a 90-minute stunner: we believe that Mbappé and his teammates can pull off a sensational win.
The probable line-ups for France-Croatia
FRANCE (4-3-3): Maignan; Koundé, Upamecano, Saliba, Digne; Rabiot, Tchouameni, Guendouzi; Dembélé, Mbappé, Barcola.
CROATIA (3-4-3): Livakovic; Sutalo, Caleta-Car, Gvardiol; Stanisic, Modric, Kovacic, Sosa; Kramaric, Budimir, Perisic.
POSSIBLE RESULT: 3-0