After holding Brazil for over 90 minutes, last Friday Colombia lost just as they were savouring the sweet taste of a precious draw at the Seleçao’s home ground. A goal from Real Madrid center forward Vinicius Jr. (scored in the ninth minute of injury time) prevented the Cafeteros from putting an end to their losing streak: in Brasilia James Rodriguez and his teammates suffered their third consecutive defeat (2-1) in the qualifiers after those suffered in November against Uruguay and Ecuador.
Colombia, now in sixth place, risks complicating their life and throwing away everything they’ve done in the first part of the elimination round. The Cafeteros, in fact, had started their adventure towards the North American World Cup on the right foot, remaining unbeaten in the first 8 games (including the victory against Argentina).
Paraguay unbeaten in seven games
Since then, however, something seems to have broken: Colombia has lost 4 times in their last five games, only beating Chile. In any case, their qualification for the North American zone – the Colombians haven’t played in a World Cup since 2018, having failed to qualify for Qatar 2022 – should not be in doubt, given the reassuring gap between them and seventh-placed Bolivia, who have 6 points less. The finalists of the last Copa America are looking for redemption with Paraguay in Barranquilla against a team whose mood is, to date, diametrically opposed to that of the Colombians. The arrival of the new coach, Argentine Gustavo Alfaro, has revitalized the Albirroja, unbeaten in their last seven games after their disastrous Copa America expedition.
Paraguay have one point more than Colombia and have just narrowly beaten Chile (1-0) thanks to a goal by Alderete, a defender who plays in Spain for Getafe. While the attack continues to struggle – the second least prolific in the group – the defense is solid: only Ecuador has conceded fewer goals than Alfaro’s men.
Odds comparison
Colombia’s win is quoted at 1.50 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and at 1.55 on Snai. The “Goals” sign is quoted at 2.40 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and at 2.30 on Snai.
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The prediction
Paraguay’s last win against Colombia dates back to 2017: since then, Colombia have won four and drawn two. The Cafeteros are eager for redemption after three defeats in a row, but this Albirroja can give a hard time to a team that seems to have lost its way a bit in recent outings: in this sense, the odds on the “goal” sign are tempting, considering also that Colombia has kept only one clean sheet in the last seven games.
The probable line-ups for Colombia-Paraguay
COLOMBIA (4-2-3-1): Vargas; Munoz, Cuesta, Lucumì, Mojica; Rios, Lerma; Arias, James Rodriguez, Luis Diaz; Duran.
PARAGUAY (4-4-2): Fernandez; Caceres, Balbuena, Alderete, Alonso; Galarza, Villasanti, Cubas, Almiron; Sanabria, Enciso.
POSSIBLE RESULT: 2-1