The four points won last November in the matches against Peru and Venezuela had rekindled the flame of hope, but the defeat suffered in Paraguay (1-0) last Friday represented a worrying step backwards for a Chile that will most likely be forced to watch the 2026 World Cup from home. Ricardo Gareca’s men, after a truly impalpable performance in Asuncion, have even slipped to last place in the South American qualifying group, overtaken even by Peru.
In any case, the math doesn’t condemn La Roja yet: there are still five games to play but the most Chile can aspire to is seventh place, which means a play-off for the Interzone. Bolivia, in fact, only have four more points – in June they’ll be their direct rivals – even if Vidal and his team mates have to face all the strongest teams between now and September: as well as the Bolivians, they’ll also be playing Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. This is why the match in Santiago, Chile against Ecuador is a sort of last resort to try and get back into the race. The problem, however, is that the Tricolor is in great form and without the 3-point penalty would be just 3 points behind Argentina, the current leaders.
Led by Argentinean Sebastian Beccacece, the Ecuadorians have stepped up their game in the last three days, obtaining three victories in a row against Bolivia, Colombia and Venezuela, scoring seven goals in total and conceding only one (the best defense in the group). In short, qualification for the World Cup is just around the corner and all that remains is to await the mathematical verdict.
Odds comparison
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The prediction
For Chile, the new bottom of the qualifying group, it is obviously a game they must win at all costs if they want to keep their hopes alive, but it will be really difficult against an Ecuador full of confidence and with six positive results (4 wins and 2 draws). The Chilean offensive problems – second worst attack in the qualifiers – and the Ecuadorians’ solidity suggest a match in which the total number of goals will be less than three.
The probable line-ups for Chile-Ecuador
CHILE (4-3-3): Cortes; Loyola, Maripan, Diaz, Suazo; Vidal, Echeverria, Pizarro; Sanchez, Vargas, Cepeda.
ECUADOR (4-5-1): Galindez; Ordonez, Torres, Pacho, Estupinan; Plata, Vite, Caicedo, Franco, Mercado; Valencia.
POSSIBLE RESULT: 0-1