FIFA World Cup Qualification 2026 – UEFA Group I

Kick-off: Thursday 13 November 2025, 21:45 local time (Europe/Chisinau – EET, UTC+2).

Venue: Stadionul Zimbru, Chișinău, Moldova.

Host country official language: Romanian | Timezone in November: EET UTC+2.

Match Preview

Moldova welcome Italy to Chișinău for a Group I showdown that carries weight at both ends of the table. The visitors arrive with a firm grip on second place and an eye on a possible late push for top spot, while Moldova seek to finish the campaign with a spirited home display and tangible progress in front of their fans at Stadionul Zimbru. The kick-off is set for 21:45 local time, a prime slot that should produce a crackling atmosphere.

Context first. Italy’s path through qualifying has steadied since a difficult June, and the October window underlined their upward curve with authoritative wins that secured at least a playoff place. They sit second behind Norway and control their own destiny in the run-in. Moldova’s campaign has been bruising, including heavy defeats away to the leaders and a battling draw in Tallinn, but they have shown resilience at phases and will lean into that identity again.

Tactically, expect Italy to toggle between a compact 4-3-3 and a 4-2-3-1 in possession. The double pivot allows secure circulation before quick, diagonal switches to isolate full backs and attack the far post. Their set-piece routines have been productive, and second-phase balls around the penalty spot remain a clear route to chances. Out of possession, Italy typically press in measured waves, then drop to a mid-block to control space rather than chase. The objective away from home is control: keep field tilt high, protect defensive transitions, and create repeat entries into the box. Recent scorelines support that plan.

For Moldova, the blueprint is different but clear. They will likely compress the middle third with a narrow 5-4-1 or 4-5-1, defend the width with numbers, and rely on restarts to push Italy back. Their best moments have come from direct entries to the striker line, wide free kicks, and long throws that generate chaos in the six-yard box. If Moldova can slow the game, draw fouls in advanced areas, and contest second balls, they can manufacture the kind of low-event battle that keeps the crowd engaged deep into the second half. The data and results show how unforgiving Group I has been, yet a disciplined, physical performance at home can make this awkward for the Azzurri.

Key duels will live in the half spaces. Italy’s advanced midfielder finding pockets between Moldova’s lines forces the hosts to collapse centrally, opening lanes for cut-backs. If Moldova’s screen holds and they funnel Italy into early crosses, they can keep their box compact and attack clearances. Watch also for Italy’s rotations on the right flank to create 2v1s, and for Moldova’s attempts to spring quickly into the channels when Italy’s full backs are advanced.

Set pieces could tilt the tie. Italy carry a clear edge on delivery and aerial presence, while Moldova will see corners and deep throw-ins as equalizers. The first wave of restarts inside 20 minutes will tell us plenty about how Moldova are coping with the visitors’ physicality.

Game state matters. An early Italian goal invites controlled possession and selective counterpressing, limiting Moldova’s transition hopes. If the match stays level into the final half hour, the tension rises and the hosts gain leverage through restarts and direct play. With Italy’s recent efficiency and Moldova’s defensive workload, the probabilities lean toward the visitors, but a narrow, grinding contest is very plausible if Moldova can keep errors down and slow Italy’s rhythm.

Finally, context across the group sharpens the stakes. Norway’s scoring spree has set the pace, yet Italy remain within reach and must take care of business here before their finale. Moldova will measure progress in phases, defensive stability, and the ability to contain Italy’s wide rotations. However this ends, expect a professional, structured Italy performance and a combative Moldova determined to turn the night into a contest.

TV Broadcast and Livestreams

Listings may vary by territory. Check local schedules and geo-restrictions near kick-off.

• Italy: RAI 1 and RaiPlay; additional coverage on Sky Sport Italia.
• United Kingdom: Amazon Prime Video pay-per-view.
• United States: FOX Sports with streaming on FOX Sports app; partners Fubo and ViX listed for European Qualifiers.
• International: UEFA.tv offers highlights and selected streams where rights permit.

Match Information

Times and venue verified via UEFA, ESPN and SofaScore listings.

Odds – 1X2

Prices are indicative and move over time. Check your bookmaker before betting.

Form and Head-to-Head

Head-to-Head – recent meetings

• 09 Jun 2025 – Italy 2-0 Moldova – World Cup Qualifiers
• 07 Oct 2020 – Italy 6-0 Moldova – Friendly
• 12 Oct 2005 – Italy 2-1 Moldova – World Cup Qualifiers
• 08 Sep 2004 – Moldova 0-1 Italy – World Cup Qualifiers

H2H summary per ESPN and historical records.

Standings – UEFA Group I

Latest pre-match table snapshot referenced by ESPN.

Prediction

Final score pick: Moldova 0-2 Italy

Reasoning: The visitors bring superior chance creation, set-piece threat, and depth across the front line. Moldova’s path to an upset lies in a low-event game, defensive discipline, and exploiting restarts, but market pricing and recent form point strongly to Italy. A professional away performance with under 3.5 goals fits both teams’ profiles.