Bohemians vs St Patrick’s Prediction and Analysis
In an eagerly anticipated **League of Ireland Premier Division** fixture on 20 October 2025, **Bohemians** host **St Patrick’s Athletic** at Dalymount Park. With both Dublin sides jostling in the upper half, this derby carries weight in league positioning, local pride and momentum. This preview delves into team news, historical rivals, form lines, tactical nuances and offers a considered outcome.
Latest Team News & Squad Notes
Officials have scheduled the Bohemians–St Patrick’s match for 20 October 2025. (Flashscore listing) In the most recent standings, Bohemians lie ahead in the table, with St Patrick’s trailing but still firmly in contention. (Sofascore team & fixtures) The home crowd at Dalymount Park, known for its capacity to spur the Gypsies, may prove an intangible advantage.
Bohemians enter this derby having shown late-game resilience in previous meetings—on one occasion, a stoppage-time winner sealed victory in a Dublin derby. (News recall) Their squad often blends experienced local players and youthful talent, and their manager has demonstrated trust in second-half tactical shifts. St Patrick’s Athletic, meanwhile, have produced strong away performances on occasion but have struggled to maintain consistency in drier spells.
Head-to-Head Comparison & Historical Record
The rivalry between Bohemians and St Patrick’s Athletic is deep. Since 2004, the two sides have contested around 85 matches: Bohemians have secured 32 wins, St Patrick’s 29, with 24 draws. (AiScore H2H) Their matches average roughly 1.8 goals per match for winners, and about one goal conceded by the opposition. (AiScore)
In direct head-to-head records, Bohemians have often had the slight edge. In about 91 matchups, Bohemians have won 34 times, St Patrick’s 29, with 28 draws—a goal average around 2.45 per match. (FCTables) In their more recent run, St Patrick’s have shown improvements in direct matches, winning four and drawing one in their last five mutual meetings. (AiScore) That indicates the pendulum may be swinging slightly toward the Saints in recent encounters.
Another source shows that in their last 10 H2H matches, St Patrick’s have managed more wins (three) than Bohemians (one) with several draws. The goals scored over that span skew slightly toward St Patrick’s. (Sportsgambler summary) That reflects how close the rivalry remains even as each match carries separate pressures.
Form, Stats & Trends
Recent H2H data emphasize Bohemians’ vulnerability: in a 10-match sample, they won only twice, drew three, and lost five to St Patrick’s. They scored 9 goals and conceded 17 in those encounters—an average of 0.9 for and 1.7 against. (SoccerStats247) This suggests that against St Patrick’s, Bohemians often struggle defensively, particularly in away phases of those head-to-head ties.
League-wide and club-specific data show that in the 2025 season, Bohemians at home have produced decent scoring rates—over half their home matches involved totals above 1.5 goals. However, only about 42% crossed over 2.5 goals. (FCTables) In direct matches for that same 2025 home slate, about 57.9% saw totals over 1.5, but less frequently beyond 2.5. (FCTables) That suggests Bohemians home games often stay moderately open rather than runaway goalfests.
St Patrick’s Athletic’s head-to-head stats reinforce their competitive edge: among 55 matches, they’ve won 23 times compared to Bohemians’ 17, and 15 draws. They average around 2.7 goals per match when facing each other historically. (Wettpoint statistics) Those numbers imply that when these teams meet, goals tend to come—and momentum swings matter.
Tactical Analysis & Key Matchups
Bohemians, at home, will likely attempt to control tempo early. Expect them to press in midfield, maintain compact lines, and probe wide flanks while attempting to neutralize St Patrick’s transitions. Their fullbacks may push only cautiously, balancing support and defensive cover.
St Patrick’s Athletic, adept at counter phases, could bide time in the first half and strike when Bohemians overextend. Their wide runners and late midfield surges may exploit spaces. Given their recent H2H successes, they may begin with more measured structure and aim to impose pressure in key periods.
A critical battle lies in midfield: Bohemians’ pairing must link possession, break lines, and suppress St Pat’s pivot threats. Conversely, St Pat’s midfielders must time their pressing and ensure quick transitions when possession is won. On the flanks, Bohemians wingers may challenge St Pat’s fullbacks—creating crossing or cutback options. Finally, set pieces could tilt the balance: dead balls and off-ball movement may decide tight matches.
Prediction & Forecast
Given the rivalry, historical data and trends, this clash is finely balanced. Bohemians’ home advantage and late-game grit weigh in their favor. Yet St Patrick’s recent head-to-head uptick and tactical discipline make them dangerous in Dublin derbies.
My forecast: **Bohemians 2–1 St Patrick’s Athletic**. I expect a tight match with chances at both ends, and a late breakthrough deciding the outcome—Bohemians may just edge it under their home lights.
Betting Tips & Odds Insight
– Both Teams to Score: Yes (historical matches often see both sides netting)
– Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under (though clear scoring is possible, many direct matches stay near 2.0–2.5 region)
– Match winner lean: Home win (Bohemians) is the safer side, with narrow margin expected
Conclusion: Bohemians vs St Patrick’s Summary
This Dublin derby carries balance, tension and history. Bohemians leverage home support and derby spirit; St Patrick’s bring competitive head-to-head trends, structure and threat in transition. Though St Patrick’s have shown rising head-to-head strength, the home side’s edge and familiarity likely give Bohemians the marginal edge. A **2–1 Bohemians** result appears most plausible in a close, spirited contest.