Burnley vs Leeds Prediction and Analysis
The Premier League continues with an intense fixture between Burnley and Leeds United at Turf Moor on October 18, 2025. Both teams are battling to secure vital points in their campaigns — Burnley aiming to climb away from the bottom half, and Leeds pushing for a European qualification spot.
Latest Team News and Line-ups
Burnley come into the match after a hard-fought draw against Brighton. Manager Vincent Kompany faces selection headaches as Luca Koleosho and Hjalmar Ekdal remain sidelined due to injuries. Key midfielder Josh Cullen is suspended after receiving his fifth yellow card of the season. Expect Burnley to rely on Lyle Foster and Wilson Odobert for creativity in attack, supported by the experienced Josh Brownhill in midfield.
Leeds United under Daniel Farke continue their impressive form, having won four of their last five matches. However, the team faces defensive concerns as Pascal Struijk and Junior Firpo are doubtful. Forward Georginio Rutter is expected to return to the starting XI alongside Crysencio Summerville and Patrick Bamford. Their attacking trio has been key in Leeds’ resurgence this season.
Head-to-Head Record
In recent history, Leeds United have had the upper hand. The last five meetings show two Leeds wins, two draws, and one Burnley victory. The most recent encounter ended in a 2–1 win for Leeds at Elland Road, with goals from Rutter and Summerville. Burnley’s last home win over Leeds dates back to 2018 in the Championship.
Form and Statistics
Burnley currently sit 17th in the Premier League with 9 points from 10 matches, scoring 10 goals and conceding 21 — the third-worst defensive record in the league. At Turf Moor, they’ve struggled to find consistency, winning only one of their last five home fixtures.
Leeds, on the other hand, occupy 6th place with 17 points, scoring 19 goals and allowing 11. Their attack is among the most dynamic in the league, averaging 1.9 goals per game. Leeds’ away record has also improved notably, with back-to-back wins on the road against Wolves and Fulham.
Tactical Overview and Key Battles
Burnley will likely adopt a 4-3-3 system, focusing on compact defensive lines and quick transitions. Their wide players, Odobert and Foster, will aim to exploit spaces behind the Leeds full-backs. However, Burnley’s defensive frailties in defending set-pieces remain a concern.
Leeds United’s 4-2-3-1 setup prioritizes fluid attacking movements, with Rutter and Summerville cutting inside to combine with Bamford. Farke’s side maintains high pressing intensity, seeking to win the ball high up the pitch — a potential weakness for Burnley’s possession-based build-up.
Key Duels to Watch
Lyle Foster vs Pascal Struijk: The South African striker’s strength could test Leeds’ central defense.
Brownhill vs Ampadu: The midfield battle will decide tempo control and possession.
Summerville vs Vitinho: The Dutch winger’s pace and trickery could be the decisive factor.
Prediction and Betting Insights
This clash promises goals and drama. Burnley’s home advantage could help them stay competitive, but Leeds’ attacking rhythm and superior form make them favorites. Expect both teams to score, but Leeds’ sharper finishing may tilt the balance.
Predicted Score: Burnley 1–2 Leeds United
Betting Tips
- Both teams to score: Yes
- Total goals over 2.5: Likely
- Correct score: 1–2 Leeds
- First goalscorer: Crysencio Summerville