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Arsenal-Manchester City prediction: Guardiola hasn’t managed it since 2023

by Mark

The clash between Arsenal and Manchester City is the other big match of this Premier League round, after the Liverpool derby and a classic English top-flight fixture between Manchester United and Chelsea. Without taking anything away from the others, however, the main attraction is the match at the Emirates Stadium between two teams who are both aiming to win the championship.
The Gunners have been more consistent in these first few weeks: excluding their defeat in the head-to-head with Liverpool, they have always won, conceding only one goal.

Arteta’s defensive bunker

Even in their Champions League debut last Tuesday, they kept a clean sheet, easily dispatching Athletic Bilbao (0-2) at the end of a match in which Mikel Arteta’s team once again shone in their own half, conceding very little to the Basques.

Man City also comes off the back of two clean sheets: last weekend, Pep Guardiola’s men took on their city rivals United, who were overwhelmed 3-0 thanks to Haaland’s brace, Foden’s goal, and Donnarumma’s saves. Against De Bruyne’s former club Napoli, Di Lorenzo’s sending off in the first half hour was decisive, leaving the Azzurri with 10 men. Haaland broke the deadlock in the second half, and ten minutes later Doku doubled the lead (2-0). In short, the two defeats against Tottenham and Brighton seem to be definitively behind them. Guardiola’s changes, who will rotate several players after Napoli, could see Aké and Nico Gonzalez start from the first minute to give Ruben Dias and Rodri a breather. Finally, there are doubts about Odegaard’s presence in Arsenal: if the Norwegian does not make it, Arteta will confirm Merino in the role of central midfielder, alongside the now indispensable Zubimendi. Up front, Gyokeres will lead the attack, supported by Madueke and Eze.

Odds comparison

The “Goal” bet is listed at 1.63 on Goldbet, Lottomatica, and Snai. Arsenal’s victory is quoted at 1.88 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and at 1.85 on Snai.

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The prediction

Manchester City’s last win against Arsenal dates back to April 2023: since then, the Gunners have always avoided defeat against the Cityzens, causing Guardiola several disappointments, such as last February’s 5-1 defeat. The Londoners’ solidity against City’s stellar attack, which has produced the most xG in the league so far (8.5): both teams are likely to score, but Arsenal, in our opinion, has a slightly better chance of taking home the three points. It is also worth noting that the Gunners will be more rested, having played two days earlier than the team coached by the Catalan manager.

Probable lineups for Arsenal-Manchester City

ARSENAL (4-3-3): Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori; Merino, Zubimendi, Rice; Madueke, Gyokeres, Eze.
MANCHESTER CITY (4-1-4-1): Donnarumma; Khusanov, Aké, Gvardiol, O’Reilly; Nico Gonzalez; Bernardo Silva, Foden, Reijnders, Savinho; Haaland.

POSSIBLE RESULT: 2-1

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