Last Friday, Italy took almost an hour to break down Estonia, who managed to withstand the Azzurri’s long and constant siege, despite their dominance and lack of precision in front of goal.
Once they had opened up a gap, however, the Baltic fortress literally crumbled: Kean opened the scoring, his teammate Retegui doubled the lead a few minutes later – the Italian-born player, who moved to Saudi Arabia in the summer, scored twice – and Raspadori and Bastoni also got in on the goal fest. Gattuso’s era could not have started better: a big win was needed to close the gap on Norway in terms of goal difference, and, despite a disappointing first half in terms of goals, it eventually came.
A 5-0 win that instills confidence and raises self-esteem after the lackluster performances in June and the stormy end of Spalletti’s tenure, but it would be an unforgivable mistake for Italy to rest on its laurels and think that its problems are behind it. The road to the 2026 World Cup remains tortuous and particularly difficult.
Gattuso, a good start
With Gattuso, we have seen a more offensive and uninhibited approach – a four-man defense, two strikers on the field at the same time – which will have to be maintained in the upcoming games, in which the Azzurri will once again be obliged to win and score as many goals as possible in order to arrive at the direct clash with Norway in November with at least an acceptable goal difference.
The problem is that even second place does not seem secure at the moment: Israel, in fact, crushed Moldova 4-0 and, with one more game played, is currently second with 9 points, +3 ahead of Italy. Any result other than a win in Debrecen, Hungary—the Israeli team is forced to play on neutral ground—would seriously complicate their plans to catch up with the Scandinavians, the only team in the group with a perfect score (12 points). Italy faced Israel a year ago in the Nations League, between September and October: two victories for the Azzurri, but both more difficult than expected (1-2 away and 4-1 at home, although in the latter match the result remained uncertain until halfway through the second half).
Odds comparison
Italy’s victory is quoted at 1.40 on Goldbet Goldbete Lottomatica and 1.42 on Snai. The “Goal” sign is quoted at 1.93 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and 1.95 on Snai.
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The prediction
Compared to modest Estonia, Israel, in addition to decent tactical organization, has more quality – the star is midfielder Gloukh, who moved from Salzburg to Ajax in the summer – and could cause some headaches for Italy, which, as in Bergamo, will not lower its center of gravity and will be willing to concede something again in its own half. Israel has always scored at least one goal in these qualifiers – scoring two against Norway – and will most likely not go scoreless against the Azzurri, who are in any case favorites to take all three points.
Probable lineups for Israel-Italy
ISRAEL (5-4-1): Daniel Peretz; Dasa, Do Peretz, Lemkin, Nachmias, Revivo; Biton, E. Peretz, Gloukh, Solomon; Baribo.
ITALY (4-4-2): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Calafiori, Dimarco; Politano, Barella, Tonali, Zaccagni; Kean, Retegui.
Will Italy manage to keep a clean sheet?
No (52%, 49 Votes)
Yes (48%, 46 Votes)
Total Voters: 95
POSSIBLE RESULT: 1-3