League One, the countdown is almost over: professional leagues are restarting in England, here are Opta’s predictions to help you navigate
The 2025-26 season of England’s third division will feature eight teams that have played in the Premier League this century, including Luton Town, which was in the top flight just two years ago before suffering two consecutive relegations. Leyton Orient are still in the mix after narrowly losing the playoff final to Charlton Athletic last May, while Stockport County and Wycombe Wanderers will be looking to bounce back after their playoff disappointments in the 2024-25 season.
Doncaster Rovers secured promotion by winning League Two last season, joined in League One by Port Vale, Bradford City, and playoff winners AFC Wimbledon. It promises to be another rollercoaster season in League One, which is why Opta’s supercomputer has been asked to make its predictions ahead of the weekend’s fixtures. It should be noted that Opta correctly predicted both the winner and the final of the Club World Cup between Chelsea and PSG after the round of 16. It is important to understand that these projections are based on the current situation. These pre-season projections provide an initial look at what teams can realistically expect in 2025-26.Stockport County came close to achieving two consecutive promotions (from League Two to the Championship), but lost second place by five points to Wrexham and was then eliminated on penalties by Leyton Orient in the playoff semifinals. Stockport has not played in the second division since 2001-02, but the Opta supercomputer believes this could be the season. Dave Challinor’s side are the favourites for automatic promotion. They are followed by Leyton Orient, who lost the playoff final to Charlton. Blackpool are also among the favourites, despite finishing ninth last season. With Steve Bruce at the helm, a coach who has achieved four promotions in his career between Birmingham and Hull City, a fifth could be on the cards in 2025-26.
League One predictions: the teams set to disappoint
And the teams relegated from the Championship? Luton Town, Plymouth Argyle, and Cardiff City should be among the favorites, all in the top 10 for direct promotion. Luton is the most favored team among the relegated teams, with a 10.8% chance of direct promotion.
AFC Wimbledon fans erupted with joy last May with their League Two playoff victory over Walsall. But now the goal will be to avoid immediate relegation.
The other promoted teams – Doncaster Rovers, Port Vale, and Bradford City – are expected to do better than Wimbledon, but they are still among the seven teams most at risk of relegation according to the supercomputer. Northampton Town is the second most at risk (32.3%), followed by Mansfield Town (30.9%).
Here is the average ranking predicted for the 2025-26 League One season, according to simulations by the Opta supercomputer, with average points obtained from 10,000 simulations. Stockport is the championship winner on Bet365 at odds of 10.
Stockport County – 79.7 points
Leyton Orient – 76.2
Blackpool – 74.4
Wycombe Wanderers – 74.1
Reading – 69.9
Luton Town – 68.2
Bolton Wanderers – 67.0
Lincoln City – 66.1
Plymouth Argyle – 66.1
Cardiff City – 65.4
Wigan Athletic – 63.7
Barnsley – 62.9
Rotherham United – 61.3
Peterborough United – 60.3
Stevenage – 59.3
Huddersfield Town – 58.6
Exeter City – 57.0
Doncaster Rovers – 56.3
Burton Albion – 55.1
Bradford City – 54.6
Mansfield Town – 54.6
Port Vale – 54.6
Northampton Town – 54.3
AFC Wimbledon – 54.1