The first round of 16 of the Club World Cup is an exciting Brazilian derby between Palmeiras and Botafogo, the two winners of the last three editions of the Brasileirao. The South American teams are undoubtedly the most convincing, along with their compatriots Flamengo: Verdao finished first in Group A, as predicted, beating Leo Messi’s Inter Miami thanks to a better goal difference.
Two draws and a win for Abel Ferreira’s men, but there were some shadows as well as highlights. The 0-0 draw with Porto in their opening game was a good result, but the 2-2 draw with the Americans on the last day was disappointing, with Paulinho and Mauricio scoring late goals to snatch a draw. Palmeiras did not impress at all, attacking in a disorganized manner and showing difficulties when not in possession. The Portuguese coach’s substitutions put things back on track, although against an opponent of Inter Miami’s caliber—excluding Messi and Suarez, the real stars of the evening—more was to be expected. A few hours earlier, Botafogo had lost 1-0 to Atlético Madrid: a painless defeat, given that the Colchoneros needed to win by a large margin to advance from the group stage.
Fogao’s feat
The Bianconeri, on the other hand, were only concerned with limiting the damage, but risked being overwhelmed in the first half. Fogao had already achieved a masterpiece on the second day, taking the scalp of reigning European champions PSG, who were beaten by a goal from Igor Jesus at the end of a truly flawless defensive performance, which was also praised by Paris coach Luis Enrique.
Botafogo finished in second place, level on points with PSG and Atletico (6) but ahead of the Spaniards in the head-to-head standings: a qualification that was far from a foregone conclusion, given that two European football giants had been drawn in this group. Now Renato Paiva’s men are setting their sights high: finishing in the top eight of the World Cup would be a remarkable achievement.
Odds comparison
The “Under 2.5” bet is priced at 1.50 on Goldbet, Lottomatica, and Snai. A draw is priced at 2.90 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and 2.95 on Snai.
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Prediction
Two teams with many strengths but also many weaknesses. Above all, they know each other very well. The previous match of the season, played in March, ended 0-0, in stark contrast to the last three matches, which all ended with “over 2.5” goals. Palmeiras, however, have not beaten Botafogo since November 2023 and were knocked out by Fogao in the round of 16 of the Libertadores a year ago. In short, there is no clear favorite in a match that promises to be very tense and unspectacular: the total number of goals is likely to be less than three. Extra time should be seriously considered.
Probable line-ups for Palmeiras-Botafogo
PALMEIRAS (4-2-3-1): Weverton; Giay, Gustavo Gómez, Fuchs, Piquerez; Ríos, Moreno; Estevão, Mauricio, Facundo Torres; Vitor Roque.
BOTAFOGO (4-3-3): John Victor; Vitinho, Cunha, Barboza, Telles; Newton, Allan, Freitas; Artur, Igor Jesús, Savarino.
POSSIBLE RESULT: 0-0