Merino’s goal in stoppage time changed everything. Obviously, Spain’s last-gasp equalizer in Amsterdam, which also benefited from Hato’s sending off in the 84th minute, puts De La Fuente’s side one step closer to the Nations League final four.
The Netherlands, however, played a great game. Immediately behind due to Nico Williams’ goal, the Oranje had the strength to react and turn the match around. But then the strike from the player who is also playing as a striker for Arsenal on some occasions changed everything. Spain did better overall, however: the reigning European champions had more shots on goal and on target, as usual they controlled the game for long periods, and they also had a better Expected Goals percentage. All these statistics, fresh from a match played just two days ago, tell us one thing: the Red Fury are the favorites and will certainly be able to take the victory and qualify.
This is also because there is clearly a taboo to be broken: in the last five times these two teams have faced each other, Spain has only managed to win once, and that was on penalties. Let’s say that this is a good opportunity to close the chapter.
Odds comparison
Spain’s victory is priced at 1.67 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and 1.65 on Snai.
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Prediction
Spain will win for the first time in 15 years in a match with at least three goals scored. Merino’s goal at the end changed everything, even mentally. So yes, the hosts will take the victory and qualify.
Probable line-ups for Spain-Netherlands
SPAIN (4-3-3): Simon; Porro, Le Normand, Cubarsi, Cucurella; Pedri, Zubimendi, Ruiz; Yamal, Morata, Williams.
NETHERLANDS (4-3-3): Verbruggen; Geertruida, van Hecke, Van Dijk, Baas; Reijnders, Kluivert, De Jong; Frimpong, Brobbey, Gakpo.
POSSIBLE RESULT: 2-1