The most striking result of the Nations League quarter-finals. Croatia’s 2-0 victory over France, including a penalty miss by the home side, overturns what seemed like a foregone conclusion, with Les Bleus now facing an uphill battle in the return leg.
And yes, there is a scent of an upset in the air for a couple of reasons. Yes, it is true that Croatia won, starting with a two-goal advantage and therefore able to approach the second leg with a very different tactical approach, but it is equally true that France hit the woodwork twice against Livakovic and missed at least a couple of glorious chances in front of goal. Yes, perhaps the reaction everyone was expecting was missing, but it will certainly be there in the return match on Sunday evening in Paris. And the Croatians know this too, of course. They may be able to hold out, but sooner or later they will fall. We also know that a victory by at least two goals would take the match into extra time. It could well be the case, so that’s why we say that the feat is possible.
This is also because the statistics at the end of yesterday’s match tell us one thing: France had more shots on goal and more shots on target. Even the Expected Goals show that Deschamps’ team was decidedly unlucky. So yes, the feat is indeed possible.
Odds comparison
France’s victory is priced at 1.45 on Goldbet, Lottomatica and 1.43 on Snai.
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The prediction
Feat. Possible and feasible. France will definitely win the match by at least two goals, so in the worst-case scenario, the game will go into extra time. But watch out for a surprise in the 90 minutes: we believe that Mbappé and his teammates can pull off a sensational upset.
Probable line-ups for France-Croatia
FRANCE (4-3-3): Maignan; Koundé, Upamecano, Saliba, Digne; Rabiot, Tchouameni, Guendouzi; Dembélé, Mbappé, Barcola.
CROATIA (3-4-3): Livakovic; Sutalo, Caleta-Car, Gvardiol; Stanisic, Modric, Kovacic, Sosa; Kramaric, Budimir, Perisic.
POSSIBLE RESULT: 3-0