This is the fourth match that Luciano Spalletti will be watching with interest, given that if his Italy manages to knock out Germany, it will face either Denmark or Portugal in the semifinals. The first leg will be played at Parken in Copenhagen and the return leg in Lisbon, at Sporting’s home ground. After dominating their group, the Portuguese are obviously the favorites, but the feeling is that the Scandinavians have what it takes to cause problems and make things difficult for Cristiano Ronaldo and his teammates, provided they manage to avoid defeat in front of their home crowd. A comeback in Portugal would be very complicated indeed.
Under new coach Brian Riemer, Denmark finished second behind Spain last autumn, beating formidable rivals Serbia and Switzerland. The Danes got off to a flying start with eight points from six games, winning their first two matches, both at home, before coming back down to earth with defeats to European champions Spain, who won both the home and away games. Portugal, on the other hand, was almost perfect in Group 1 of League A: four wins and two draws for Roberto Martinez’s side, which was only stopped away from home by Scotland and Croatia. The Lusitanians, as usual, proved exceptional in the group stage: it was important to do well, especially after a European Championship in which the shadows were certainly greater than the lights, despite reaching the quarter-finals.
Ronaldo still at the center of it all
For the two matches with Portugal, Riemer will have to do without several key players, from Hojbjerg to Christensen, Bah, Poulsen, and Dolberg.
In attack, Lazio’s Isaksen will get a chance, as will Hojlund (looking to redeem himself after his lackluster performances with Manchester United) and Wind. Monaco striker Biereth is also eager to make his national team debut. In Portugal, everything still revolves around the ageless Ronaldo, who at 40 years of age continues to score consistently in Saudi Arabia. With the exception of Joao Cancelo, Martinez has called up virtually all of the most talented players in this squad: Joao Neves, Vitinha, and Nuno Mendes, who have been in great form with PSG in recent games, have a good chance of starting.
Odds comparison
Portugal’s victory is priced at 2.15 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and 2.20 on Snai. The “Under 2.5” bet is priced at 1.68 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and 1.70 on Snai.
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The prediction
The most recent precedents date back to about ten years ago: Portugal came out on top in the last three matches, between Euro 2012 and the qualifiers for the following European Championship. The Portuguese, who are full of quality in all areas, should be able to avoid defeat at Parken, although it will not be easy to beat a tactically well-organized team that is at its best at home, like Denmark: the total number of goals could be less than three, in line with Portugal’s last two away games in Croatia and Scotland (0-0 and 1-1).
Probable line-ups for Denmark vs. Portugal
DENMARK (4-3-3): Schmeichel; Kristensen, Vestergaard, Andersen, Maehle; Eriksen, Hjulmand, Damsgaard; Isaksen, Hojlund, Wind.
PORTUGAL (4-2-3-1): Diogo Costa; Dalot, Antonio Silva, Araujo, Nuno Mendes; Joao Neves, Vitinha; Pedro Neto, Bruno Fernandes, Leao; Cristiano Ronaldo.
POSSIBLE RESULT: 0-1