PSG are one step away from their second Champions League final in their history thanks to the “D” factor. That letter stands for Dembélé-Donnarumma, the two great protagonists of the first leg of the semi-final against Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium, which ended 0-1 for the Parisians. The striker put Luis Enrique’s side ahead after just four minutes, taking advantage of a perfect assist from Kvaratskhelia: it was his eighth goal in nine games played in 2025 in Europe’s most important competition. The rest was done by the Italian national team’s first-choice goalkeeper, who was once again decisive with his saves, as he was in the round of 16 against Liverpool.
The French side thus proved that they had learned from their mistakes: it was a similar script to the match in the group stage, which ended 2-0 for Arsenal, but this time PSG’s greater cynicism paid off, as they were more incisive than the Gunners, who, despite not looking out of place in terms of play, wasted many chances in front of goal. Now the Londoners are facing a titanic task: in Paris, to keep their dream alive, they will have to try to win by any score, because a draw would see them eliminated.
Gunners need the perfect game
Mikel Arteta’s men have what it takes to turn things around, and they proved it in the quarter-finals against reigning European champions Real Madrid, beating them both in London and in Spain. However, a perfect performance will be needed to conquer the Parc des Princes: the statistics say so too, as the English capital club has never overturned a home defeat in the first leg of a European cup tie.
On the contrary, PSG have progressed 18 times out of 19 in UEFA competitions after winning the first leg away from home: the exception was their elimination by Manchester United in the 2018-19 season, when the now defunct away goals rule was decisive. Meanwhile, last weekend saw another defeat in Ligue 1, the second in a row, this time away to Strasbourg (2-1). No big deal for Luis Enrique, who is now focused solely on the Champions League with his players, given that the league title has been won with a huge lead. Arsenal are also focused on the Champions League: despite fielding several regular starters, the Gunners lost 2-1 to Bournemouth at the Emirates Stadium on Saturday. The defeat was not entirely painless, as Manchester City moved to within three points of second place.
As for the likely line-ups, Luis Enrique’s only doubt concerns Dembélé, who suffered a thigh strain in the first leg. The striker will do everything he can to be there – he returned to training on Monday – but his presence from the start is not a foregone conclusion. On the other side, Arteta welcomes back Partey, who was suspended seven days ago, but risks being without Timber, who is out with a muscle problem. The infirmary remains crowded: Gabriel, Tomiyasu, Gabriel Jesus, Havertz, and Jorginho are all out. Calafiori, on the other hand, will take a seat on the bench.
Odds comparison
A goal is priced at 1.50 on Goldbet, Lottomatica, and Snai. A draw is priced at 1.75 on Goldbet and Lottomatica and at 1.73 on Snai.
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The prediction
Compared to the first leg, we can expect a few more goals, considering that Arsenal cannot settle for a draw: elimination would be the penalty. PSG, however, will not give up playing, nor will they limit themselves to defending: this is not part of Luis Enrique’s philosophy, who has said in no uncertain terms that he wants to win the second leg as well. We therefore predict an eventful match, with at least one goal per side, which could really heat up in the second half, especially if the first half remains evenly balanced. The X2 is tempting, but we believe the Parisians will manage to avoid defeat and secure their place in the final in Munich.
Probable line-ups for PSG-Arsenal
PSG (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Nuno Mendes; Joao Neves, Vitinha, Fabian Ruiz; Doué, Dembélé, Kvaratskhelia.
ARSENAL (4-3-3): Raya; White, Saliba, Kiwior, Lewis-Skelly; Odegaard, Partey, Rice; Saka, Merino, Martinelli.